The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product
AbstractTwo aspects of reliability--revisions and errors--need separate analysis. Revisions in gross national product (GNP) estimates are large in relation to the size of changes that matter to businesses and policymakers; nevertheless, preliminary estimates convey a lot of information about what the revised estimates will show. Errors in GNP estimates can plausibly be either larger or smaller than revisions. The distinction between gathering errors and adjustment errors helps us understand (1) the absence of any measure of the size of GNP errors and (2) the ways in which national-income statisticians go about reducing errors. These ideas suggest several guidelines for improving GNP estimates.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 8 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Chris Bajada, 2000.
"An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure,"
Working Paper Series
103, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Christopher Bajada, 2001. "An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 27-61, May.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013.
"Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
- Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
- Chris Bajada, 2001.
"The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data,"
Working Paper Series
110, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Christopher Bajada, 2002. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 276-286.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- Oller, Lars-Erik & Tallbom, Christer, 1996. "Smooth and timely business cycle indicators for noisy Swedish data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 389-402, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.