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An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure

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  • Christopher Bajada

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney Broadway)

Abstract

The statistical discrepancy is often used to gauge the reliability of national accounts data. Particularly since the mid-1980’s the statistical discrepancy in Australia has grown significantly in size and variance. In this paper we demonstrate that the overwhelming contribution to the size of the statistical discrepancy is mismeasurement of private investment expenditure. We demonstrate that this mismeasurement not only adds to the volatility of investment but may have a significant impact on the volatility of the business cycle in general.

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File URL: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume4/bajada.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): IV (2001)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 27-61

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:4:y:2001:n:1:p:27-61

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Keywords: statistical discrepancy; national accounts; investment; business cycles;

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  2. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  3. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2001. "The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 901-928, November.
  4. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
  5. Weale, Martin, 1992. "Estimation of Data Measured with Error and Subject to Linear Restrictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 167-74, April-Jun.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  7. G. C. Lim, 1985. "GDP Growth Rates Calculated from Quarterly National Accounts: Discrepancies and Revisions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 18(4), pages 21-27.
  8. Weale, Martin, 1985. "Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 685-89, November.
  9. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
  10. de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
  11. McDonald, John, 1972. "An Examination of the Residual Error in the U. K. National Accounts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 40(2), pages 193-207, June.
  12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
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