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Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey

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Author Info
Thomas A. Knetsch ()

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Abstract

Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo business survey contains information on the assessments of inventory stocks in manufacturing as well as in retail and wholesale trade. Static factor analysis and a method building on canonical correlations are applied to construct a composite index of inventory fluctuations. Based on recursive estimates, the different variants are assessed as regards the stability of the weighting schemes and the ability to forecast the “true” inventory fluctuations better than the preliminary official releases.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1202.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1202

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Related research
Keywords: inventory investment revisions composite indices canonical correlation factor models national accounts data Ifo business survey Germany

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  22. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Klaus Abberger & Sascha Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Bestand, Verwendung und Zugang," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 27-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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