The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy
AbstractUsing aggregate data, the paper analyzes the importance of inventory investment for German business cycles since 1960. In contrast to U.S. experience, the traditional productionsmoothing/ buffer-stock model is not rejected by empirical evidence. Preliminary national accounts data of inventory investment have particularly poor quality. In order to be able to analyze recent stockbuilding trends in Germany, we propose a composite index aggregating information drawn from monthly production and sales statistics as well as from the Ifo business survey. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,09.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
inventory fluctuations; business cycles; data quality; composite index; Germany;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998.
"Detrending and business cycle facts,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Seitz, Helmut, 1993. "Still More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models: A Lesson in Aggregation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 103-27.
- Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004.
"Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1202, CESifo Group Munich.
- Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
- Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Teruyama, Hiroshi, 1988. "Some international evidence on inventory fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 225-230.
- Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
- James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June.
- Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
- Konig, Heinz & Seitz, Helmut, 1991. "Production and Price Smoothing by Inventory Adjustment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 233-52.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obermaier, Robert, 2012. "German inventory to sales ratios 1971–2005—An empirical analysis of business practice," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 964-976.
- Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004.
"Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2004,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1202, CESifo Group Munich.
- Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2008. "On the Periodicity of Inventories," Studies in Economics 0806, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- Vetlov, Igor & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0654, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.