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The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy

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Author Info
Knetsch, Thomas A.

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Abstract

Using aggregate data, the paper analyzes the importance of inventory investment for German business cycles since 1960. In contrast to U.S. experience, the traditional productionsmoothing/ buffer-stock model is not rejected by empirical evidence. Preliminary national accounts data of inventory investment have particularly poor quality. In order to be able to analyze recent stockbuilding trends in Germany, we propose a composite index aggregating information drawn from monthly production and sales statistics as well as from the Ifo business survey. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,09.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2018

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Related research
Keywords: inventory fluctuations; business cycles; data quality; composite index; Germany;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 443-520. [Downloadable!]
  4. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  11. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Teruyama, Hiroshi, 1988. "Some international evidence on inventory fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 225-230. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  14. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Seitz, Helmut, 1993. "Still More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models: A Lesson in Aggregation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 103-27.
  16. Konig, Heinz & Seitz, Helmut, 1991. "Production and Price Smoothing by Inventory Adjustment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 233-52.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Igor Vetlov & Thomas Warmedinger, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2008. "On the Periodicity of Inventories," Studies in Economics 0806, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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