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The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy

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  • Knetsch, Thomas A.

Abstract

Using aggregate data, the paper analyzes the importance of inventory investment for German business cycles since 1960. In contrast to U.S. experience, the traditional productionsmoothing/ buffer-stock model is not rejected by empirical evidence. Preliminary national accounts data of inventory investment have particularly poor quality. In order to be able to analyze recent stockbuilding trends in Germany, we propose a composite index aggregating information drawn from monthly production and sales statistics as well as from the Ifo business survey. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,09.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2018

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Related research

Keywords: inventory fluctuations; business cycles; data quality; composite index; Germany;

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References

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  1. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
  3. Konig, Heinz & Seitz, Helmut, 1991. "Production and Price Smoothing by Inventory Adjustment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 233-52.
  4. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June.
  7. Seitz, Helmut, 1993. "Still More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models: A Lesson in Aggregation," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 103-27.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  9. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
  10. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle – Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1202, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  14. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  16. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  17. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Teruyama, Hiroshi, 1988. "Some international evidence on inventory fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 225-230.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Obermaier, Robert, 2012. "German inventory to sales ratios 1971–2005—An empirical analysis of business practice," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 964-976.
  3. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Vetlov, Igor & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0654, European Central Bank.
  5. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2008. "On the Periodicity of Inventories," Studies in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Kent 0806, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

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