IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006654.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The German block of the ESCB multi-country model

Author

Listed:
  • Warmedinger, Thomas
  • Vetlov, Igor

Abstract

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical framework, the German model has also some unique features for instance with regard to the modelling of the investment components, imports and employment. The paper provides a brief overview of the theoretical framework of the model, its estimation results, and a discussion of the dynamic model properties. The model is primarily used for preparing quarterly projections for the German economy as well as for policy analysis. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E1, E2

Suggested Citation

  • Warmedinger, Thomas & Vetlov, Igor, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006654
    Note: 375746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp654.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Bazaar Economy GermanyWorld Champion Exporter or Laggard?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, March.
    2. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.
    4. Dieter Nautz & Juliane Scharff, 2005. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability in a Low Inflation Country: Empirical Evidence for Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 507-523, November.
    5. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
    6. Thierry Francq, 1990. "Contenu en importations et contrainte extérieure," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(3), pages 171-177.
    7. Alpo Willman & Ángel Estrada, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model," Working Papers 0212, Banco de España.
    8. Angelini, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank.
    9. Villetelle, Jean-Pierre & Boissay, Frédéric, 2005. "The French block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 456, European Central Bank.
    10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Angelini, Elena & McAdam, Peter & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank.
    13. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Ramanauskas, 2011. "What Caused the Recent Boom-And-Bust Cycle in Lithuania? Evidence from a Macromodel with the Financial Sector," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 10, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Titarenko, Deniss, 2008. "Investīcijas kā Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmes faktors [Investments as a Growth Factor of the Latvian Economy]," MPRA Paper 16775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Grech, Aaron George & Grech, Owen & Micallef, Brian & Rapa, Noel & Gatt, William, 2013. "A Structural Macro-Econometric Model of the Maltese Economy," MPRA Paper 46128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    5. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Kurt Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy," KOF Working papers 10-253, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Angelini, Elena & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Econometric analyses with backdated data: Unified Germany and the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1405-1414, May.
    7. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005.
    8. Aleksejs Melihovs & Gundars Davidsons, 2006. "The Role of Production Progress and Human Capital in the Economic Growth of Latvia," Working Papers 2006/03, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2017. "Natural Resources and Productivity: Can Banking Development Mitigate the Curse?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Julius Stakenas, 2015. "Forecasting Lithuanian Inflation," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angelini, Elena & McAdam, Peter & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1050, European Central Bank.
    4. Miroslav Klucik, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustment in Slovakia: Findings from a Medium-Scale Econometric Model," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    5. Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec, 2008. "Koncepcja bogactwa gospodarstw domowych. Szacunki dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 19-50.
    6. Vetlov, Igor, 2004. "The lithuanian block of the ECSB multi-country model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    8. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    9. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
    10. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    11. Kromphardt, Jürgen & Logeay, Camille, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Kurt Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy," KOF Working papers 10-253, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Spitzer, 2005. "AQM – The Austrian Quarterly Model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank," Working Papers 104, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2006. "Macroeconomic aspects of structural labor market reforms in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1295, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    16. Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Schütz, Bernhard, 2017. "The NAIRU determinants: What’s structural about unemployment in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 883-908.
    17. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    18. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
    21. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    22. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany.; Macro-econometric Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006654. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.