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Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey

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  • Knetsch, Thomas A.

Abstract

Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo business survey contains information on the assessments of inventory stocks in manufacturing as well as in retail andwholesale trade. Static factor analysis anda methodbuild ing on canonical correlations are appliedto construct a composite index of inventory fluctuations. Based on recursive estimates, the different variants are assessedas regards the stability of the weighting schemes andthe ability to forecast the "true" inventory fluctuations better than the preliminary official releases. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,10.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2019

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Keywords: inventory investment; revisions; composite indices; canonical correlation; factor models; national accounts data; Ifo business survey; Germany;

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Cited by:
  1. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 47, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Sascha O. Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Bestand, Verwendung, Zugang," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 44, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  3. Klaus Abberger & Sascha Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Bestand, Verwendung und Zugang," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 27-42, June.
  4. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 307-319.
  5. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2004. "The Inventory Cycle of the German Economy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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