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Business Cycle Properties of the Legitimate and Underground Economy in Australia

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  • Christopher Bajada

Abstract

The business cycle characteristics of the legitimate economy have been examined quite extensively. In this paper we extend the standard business cycle analysis to the underground economy and compare it to the legitimate economy. Using National Bureau of Economic Research dating methodologies we find that classical cycles exhibit strong incidence of asymmetry while growth cycles appear relatively symmetric. We find that changes in legitimate activity lead to changes in underground activity but that the underground economy responds more to negative shocks in legitimate activity than to positive shocks. This implies that the underground economy is deepening economic downturns and increasing the volatility of the business cycle in general. Copyright 2003. The Economic Society of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 79 (2003)
Issue (Month): 247 (December)
Pages: 397-411

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:79:y:2003:i:247:p:397-411

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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  6. van Garderen, Kees Jan, 2001. "Optimal prediction in loglinear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 119-140, August.
  7. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
  9. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  11. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
  12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  13. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  15. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  17. Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number caga58-1.
  18. Bajada, Christopher, 1999. "Estimates of the Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 369-84, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 2435, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  2. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti, 2012. "Underground labor, search frictions and macroeconomic fluctuations," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0159, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  3. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Emin Gahramanov, 2009. "A Stochastic Growth Model with Income Tax Evasion: Implications for Australia," Economics Series 2009_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  4. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2011. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Underground Sector: Challenging the Double Business Cycle Approach," Working papers 2011-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  5. Christopher Bajada & Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Unemployment and the Shadow Economy in the oecd," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(5), pages 1033-1067.
  6. Emilio Colombo & Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2013. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: empirics and theory," Working Papers 234, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
  7. Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp05-29, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 676-683, July.
  9. Trevor Breusch, 2005. "Australia's Cash Economy: Are the estimates credible?," Macroeconomics 0509025, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 2005.
  10. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 573-586.
  11. Breusch, Trevor, 2006. "Australia’s underground economy – redux?," MPRA Paper 9980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Sifis Kafkalas & Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2012. "Tax Evasion and Public Expenditures on Tax Collection Services in an Endogenous Growth Model," Working Papers 1202, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 09 Mar 2013.
  13. Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.

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