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An Examination of the Statistical Discrepancy and Private Investment Expenditure

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Abstract

The statistical discrepancy is often used to gauge the reliability of national accounts data. Particularly since the mid-1980's the statistical discrepancy in Australia has grown significantly in size and variance. In the paper we demonstrate that the overwhelming contribution to the size of the statistical discrepancy is mismeasurement of private investment expenditure. We demonstrate that this mismeasurement not only adds to the volatility of investment but may have a significant impact on the volatility of the business cycle in general.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/finance/research/wpapers/wp103.pdf
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Paper provided by Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 103.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:103

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Keywords: statistical discrepancy; national accounts; investment; business cycles;

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  1. Weale, Martin, 1985. "Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 685-89, November.
  2. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  3. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2001. "The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 901-928, November.
  6. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
  7. McDonald, John, 1972. "An Examination of the Residual Error in the U. K. National Accounts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 40(2), pages 193-207, June.
  8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, August.
  9. Weale, Martin, 1992. "Estimation of Data Measured with Error and Subject to Linear Restrictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 167-74, April-Jun.
  10. G. C. Lim, 1985. "GDP Growth Rates Calculated from Quarterly National Accounts: Discrepancies and Revisions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 18(4), pages 21-27.
  11. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
  12. de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
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