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The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data

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Author Info
Chris Bajada () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

Although national accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview of economic activity, preliminary estimates are subject to much revision before they are regarded as reliable indicators. Oddly enough, the market acts on the preliminary estimates as though they were final and complete. Even though there exists a considerable international literature on the statistical properties of these revisions, little attention has been devoted to the effects of inflation and the business cycle on the size and direction of these early revisions. The aim of this paper is to provide the first known examination of these effects and to identify an optimal policy strategy to ensure the highest quality of data collection. This paper finds the optimal strategy to be a policy of low inflationary economic growth with an inflation target between 0 and 5%.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 110.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:110

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Related research
Keywords: inflation; busines cycles; revisions; national accounts;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Robert York & Paul Atkinson, 1997. "The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 171, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ross D. Milbourne & Gregor W. Smith, 1989. "How Informative Are Preliminary Announcements of the Money Stock in Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 595-606, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. G. C. Lim, 1985. "GDP Growth Rates Calculated from Quarterly National Accounts: Discrepancies and Revisions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 18(4), pages 21-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Brooks, Robert D & Berman, Gabrielle E & Davidson, Sinclair R, 1998. "The Nature and Extent of Revisions to Australian Macroeconomic Data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 169-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  6. Stekler, H O, 1987. "The Effect of Data Revisions and Additional Observations on Time-Series Estimates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 347-53, March.
  7. Patterson, Kerry D & Heravi, Saeed M, 1991. "Data Revisions and the Expenditure Components of GDP," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 887-901, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
  9. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. de Leeuw, Frank, 1990. "The Reliability of U.S. Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 191-203, April.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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