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How Informative are Preliminary Announcements of the Money Stock in Canada?

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  • Ross Milbourne
  • Gregor W. Smith

Abstract

We examine hypotheses about the relationship between provisional estimates and final values of M1, M2, and M3 and their growth rates in Canada, using monthly data and multiple revisions. Preliminary values cannot be viewed as final values plus an error (revision) uncorrelated with these but they are approximately unbiased forecasts of final values. The second difference in short-term interest rates is a leading indicator of revisions in M1 growth rates and revisions exhibit significant seasonality; hence preliminary values are not completely rational forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 716.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:716

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Cited by:
  1. Chris Bajada, 2001. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Working Paper Series 110, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Pooling Forecasts in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 1129, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.

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