International Institute of Forecasters
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting
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2013, Issue 29
- 5-13 Forecasting Revenue in Professional Service Companies
by Kevin Foley - 14-18 FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices
by Mike Gilliland - 19-25 S&OP and Financial Planning
by John Dougherty & Chris Gray - 26-31 Collaborative Forecasting: Beyond S&OP
by John Mello - 38-42 Rare Events: Limiting Their Damage Through Advances in Modeling
by Gloria Gonz‡lez-Rivera - 43-44 Practical Time Series Forecasting: A Hands-On Guide, 2nd edition By Galit Shmueli
by Tom Willemain - 45-48 Megatrends and Game Changers: The U.S. National Intelligence CouncilÕs ÒGlobal Trends 2030: Alternative WorldsÓ
by Ira Sohn
2013, Issue 28
- 5-11 Forecasting to Meet Demand
by Roland Martin & Stephan Kolassa - 12-18 How to Separate Risk from Uncertainty in Strategic Forecasting
by Christian SchŠfer - 19-22 Fostering Communication That Builds Trust
by Joe Smith & Simon Clarke - 30-36 The Role of S&OP in a Sluggish Economy
by Jane B. Lee - 37-42 S&OP: Five Steps to Gaining Necessary and Appropriate Buy-In
by Jason Boorman - 43 Interview with Jason Boorman
by Foresight Staff - 44-49 GIS: The Missing Tool for Supply-Chain Design
by Jeff Greer - 50-51 Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote
by Andreas Graefe & J. Scott Armstrong, & Randall J. Jones & Alfred G. Cuz‡n - 52-54 Nate SilverÕs The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail Ð But Some DonÕt
by David Orrell
2012, Issue 27
- 5-9 Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?
by M. Sinan Gönül & Dilek Önkal & Paul Goodwin - 10-11 It's About the Quality of Interaction
by Lauge Valentin, - 12-13 The Forecaster's Capability and Empowerment
by John Parks - 14-15 Trust in Forecasting, and the Myth of Neutrality
by John P. Unger - 16-17 The View Across the Supply Chain
by Ram Ganeshan - 23-28 Exponential Smoothing: The Workhorse of Business Forecasting
by Eric Stellwagen - 29-34 S&OP Principles: The Foundation for Success
by Robert A. Stahl & Thomas F. Wallace - 35-39 Executive S&OP Implementation – Do It Right
by Amy Mansfield - 40-45 Two Notable New Forecasting Texts: Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord & Robert Fildes Forecasting: Principles and Practice by Rob Hyndman & George Athanasopoulos
by Stephan Kolassa
2012, Issue 26
- 7-15 Forecastability: A New Method for Benchmarking and Driving Improvement
by Sean Schubert - 16 Interview of Sean Schubert
by Foresight Staff - 17-19 The Forecasting Meeting: Questions from On High
by Alec Finney - 20-26 The Application of Product-Group Seasonal Indexes to Individual Products
by Maryam Mohammadipour & John Boylan & Aris Syntetos - 27-28 Hemlines and the Economy: Which Goes Down First?
by Marjolein van Baardwijk & Philip Hans Franses - 34-39 Forecasting Software: Improving the User Experience
by Stavros Asimakopoulos - 40-42 Book review of Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler’s Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think
by Ira Sohn - 43-46 Reliable Forecasts of the 2012 Presidential Election
by Randy Jones - 47-48 Does Obama Keep the Keys to the White House?
by Allan Lichtman
2012, Issue 25
- 7-9 Book Review of Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
by Paul Goodwin - 10-15 Guiding Principles for the Forecasting Support System
by Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin - 16-20 Our Best Worst Forecasting Mistakes
by Joe Smith & Simon Clarke - 26-30 Good Patterns, Bad Patterns
by Roy Batchelor - 31-34 Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor
by J. Scott Armstrong - 35-37 Designing the Forecasting Process to Manage Bias: Commentary on the Guiding Principles
by Rogelio Oliva & Noel Watson - 38-41 Executive S&OP: Overcoming the “Catch-22” of Implementation
by Robert A. Stahl & Joseph F. Shedlawski - 42-44 Forecasting for Fun Outside Your Cubicle
by Roy L. Pearson
2012, Issue 24
- 5-6 A CEO’S Perspective on S&OP and Forecasting: An Interview with Phil Dolci
by Staff - 7-12 Stream Analytics for Forecasting
by Patrick McSharry - 13-14 The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
by Andreas Graefe & Randy Jones & Scott Armstrong & Alfred Cuzán - 15-18 Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome?
by Richard Nadeau & Michael S. Lewis-Beck - 19-24 Forecasting Rounds of Golf
by Scott Parrott & John Stamey & Timothy Burcham - 30-31 The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles, Preview to the Commentaries
by Len Tashman - 32-34 There are More Fundamental Issues
by Michael Gilliland - 35-36 A Practical Handbook on Best Practice
by Alec Finney - 37-38 Elaboration on the Foundation Principles
by Mark A. Moon - 39 Elaboration on the Behavioral Principles
by John Mello - 40-41 Foundation Principles for Supply Chain Partners
by Ram Ganeshan - 42-43 The Morlidge Guiding Principles vs. Armstrong's Principles of Forecasting
by Peter Catt - 44-45 Guiding Principles: Reply to Commentaries
by Steve Morlidge - 46 Outrageous Fortunes: How Daniel Altman Sees the Future of the Global Economy
by Len Tashman
2011, Volume Spring, Issue 21
- 5-6 Review of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error
by Marcus O’Connor - 7-9 Projecting Success: Don't Forget the Base Rate
by Paul Goodwin - 10-15 Accuracy versus Profitability
by Roy Batchelor - 16-22 Forecasting Exceptional Demand: Not the Same as Forecasting Ordinary Demand
by Wilpen L. Gorr - 30-34 Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study
by Alec Finney & Martin Joseph & Hannah Kurth - 35-40 Corporate Prediction Markets: Pitfalls and Barriers
by Robert Rieg & Ramona Schoder - 41-44 Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets
by Alfred G. Cuzán - 45 Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy
by Jim Hoover - 46 Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy
by Mark Little
2011, Issue 23
- 5-9 The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles Part 2
by Steve Morlidge - 10-12 High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?
by Paul Goodwin - 13-15 The Senior Managers' Monthly Forecasting Report
by Alec Finney - 16-20 A “Softer” Approach to the Measurement of Forecast Accuracy
by John Boylan - 21-27 Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (and Rolling the Dice Shows How)
by Stephan Kolassa & Roland Martin - 34-36 Book Reviews of Scenario Planning in Organizations, by Tom Chermack and Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future, by George Wright and George Cairns
by Adam Gordon - 37-42 Forecasting with Structural Models and VARs: Relative Advantages and the Client Connection
by Dan Hamilton - 43-46 Prediction Markets and the “Trough of Disillusionment”
by Andreas Graefe - 46-47 Reply to Foresight Article “Trough of Disillusionment” by Andreas Graefe
by Robert Rieg & Ramona Schoder
2011, Issue 22
- 5-12 The Forecasting Process: Guiding Principles
by Steve Morlidge - 13-19 Using the International Futures Global Modeling System (Ifs) for Alternative Scenarios by the Numbers
by Roy Pearson - 20-26 Executive S&OP and the Cycle of Resolution: Resolving Conflict to Align Human Energy
by Robert A. Stahl & Stewart Levine, J.D. - 33-36 Forecasting Tools: Have They Upgraded the Forecasting Process?
by Joe Smith & Simon Clarke - 37-40 The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future
by Ira Sohn - 41-46 A Forecasting Support System for Temperature-Controlled Transport
by Wilfried Despagne
2011, Issue 20
- 4-7 Who Should Own the Business Forecasting Function?
by Joe Smith & Simon Clarke - 8-9 Commentaries on Foresight article by Joe Smith and Simon Clarke, Who Should Own the Business Forecasting Function?
by Tom Ross & Rob Dhuyvetter - 10-11 Book Review of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
by David Orrell - 12-17 Classification for Forecasting and Inventory
by Aris Syntetos & John Boylan & Ruud Teunter - 24-28 Forecasting Future Technology
by Roy L. Pearson - 29-36 Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right
by Alec Finney & Martin Joseph - 37-42 How S&OP Changes Corporate Culture: Results from Interviews with Seven Companies
by John E. Mello & Robert A. Stahl
2010, Issue 19
- 5-7 Book Review of “The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions” by Michael Gilliland
by Ulrich Küsters - 8 Forecaster in the Field
by Foresight Staff - 9-15 The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism
by Adam Gordon - 16-17 Commentary: In Some Ways the Situation Is Even Worse
by David Orrell - 18-19 Commentary: The View from a Quantitative Forecaster
by Geoff Allen - 20-21 Commentary: The Limitations of Quant Models--Compared to What?
by Mark Little - 30-33 The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong
by Paul Goodwin - 34-38 Executive S&OP: Managing to Achieve Consensus
by Robert A. Stahl - 39-43 Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys?
by Andreas Graefe - 44-46 Energy Forecasts to 2035: A Review of the 2010 Energy Outlook Report of the U.S. Department of Energy
by Ira Sohn
2010, Issue 18
- 4-8 Defining "Demand" for Demand Forecasting
by Mike Gilliland - 9-13 Choosing Levels of Aggregation for Supply Chain Forecasts
by John Boylan - 14-18 The Value of Forecast Information Sharing in Supply Chains
by Mohammad M. Ali & John E. Boylan - 27-32 Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get?
by Roy Batchelor - 33-37 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2010
by Allan J. Lichtman - 38-42 Looking Under the Hood of That Trend
by Roy Pearson - 43-45 Book Review of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, by Joel Kotkin
by Ira Sohn
2010, Issue 17
- 5-7 Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight
by Paul Goodwin - 8-12 Prediction Markets for Forecasting Drug Development
by Andreas Graefe - 13-18 A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight
by Adam Gordon - 19-23 Free Open-Source Forecasting Using R
by Stephan Kolassa & Rob J. Hyndman - 32-36 Resolving a Family Feud: Market-Facing versus Lean Manufacturing Families
by Robert A. Stahl & William Kerber - 37-44 Forecast Process Design, Part 3: Change Management and the Forecasting Challenge
by Joe Smith - 45-49 Book Review
by Carolyn I. Allmon - 50 Forecaster in the Field
by Foresight Staff
2010, Issue 16
- 4-11 Using Forecasting to Steer the Business: Six Principles
by Steve Morlidge - 12-15 A Baker’s Dozen Free Sources of Economic Forecasts
by Roy Pearson - 16-23 Forecast Process Design: Part 2, The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model (FRAM)
by Joe Smith - 32-39 Assessing Uncertainty in New-Product Forecasts
by Nick Guthrie & Des Markland - 40-45 How V&M Star Converts Family Forecasts Into Resource Requirements With Executive S&OP
by Robert A. Stahl & Amy Mansfield - 46-49 Corporate Culture and S&Op: Why Culture Counts
by John Mello - 50 Forecaster in the Fieldthe Field
by Foresight Interview
2009, Issue 15
- 5-7 Book Review of Animal Spirits
by Roy Batchelor - 8-11 Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors
by Paul Goodwin - 12-18 The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools, Part 1
by Joe Smith - 19-21 "People, Process, then Tools"-But What if the People and Toolset are Frozen?
by Ian Watson-Jones - 22-24 The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools: A Commentary
by Mark A. Moon - 25-31 How Jarden Branded Consumables Made Forecasting Simpler and Better Through Executive S&OP
by Robert A. Stahl & Brad McCollum - 32-36 Can Managers Judgmental Forecasts Be Made Scientifically?
by Philip Hans Franses - 37-41 Case Study: Forecasting the Productivity of Professional Services
by Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan & Robert L. Hicks - 42-44 Using Excel to Forecast: A review of two recent How-To Books
by Rick Hesse - 47 Forecasters in the Field
by Staff Interviewer
2009, Issue 14
- 5-8 Book Review of The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
by Peter Sephton - 9-11 Fast and Easy Access to Monthly Forecasts
by Roy Pearson - 12-16 Simpler, Better, and Needed More than Ever
by Robert A. Stahl - 17-23 How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process Improvement
by Jim Hoover - 25-30 A Systems Approach to Forecasting
by David Orrell & Patrick McSharry - 31-34 Why Do We Need Complexification? A Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast”
by Roy Batchelor - 35-38 Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast”
by Paul Goodwin & Robert Fildes - 39 Reply to Commentaries
by David Orrell & Patrick McSharry - 40-47 Spare-Parts Forecasting: A Case Study at Hewlett-Packard
by Jerry Z. Shan & Julie Ward & Shelen Jain & Jose Beltran & Feridoun Amirjalayer & Young-Wook Kim - 48-50 Sparklines: The Tom Thumb of Statistical Graphs
by Tom Yokum - 51 Forecaster in the Field
by Staff
2009, Issue 13
- 4-6 Review of Adam Gordon’s Book Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change
by David Orrell - 7-12 Forecasting Sharp Changes
by Roy Batchelor - 13-22 The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains
by John Mello - 24-33 Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory
by Peter M. Catt - 34-40 Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability
by John Boylan - 41-45 How to Assess Forecastability
by Stephan Kolassa - 46-50 The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
by Ira Sohn
2009, Issue 12
- 5-13 The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning
by Alec Finney & Martin Joseph - 14-20 Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People
by Tom Wallace & Bob Stahl - 21-22 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by John Mello - 23-25 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by Joseph McConnell - 26-32 Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach
by Peter Sephton - 33-35 New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin - 36-40 Percentage Error: What Denominator?
by Kesten Geeen & Len Tashman - 41-42 Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
by Andreas Graefe & J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred G. Cuzán & Randall J. Jones, Jr. - 43 Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán
2008, Issue 11
- 4-5 Book Review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres
by Roy Batchelor - 6-14 Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?
by Stephen Kolassa - 15-20 Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study
by Robert Rieg - 21-23 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Teresa McCarthy & Donna Davis & Susan Golicic & John Mentzer - 24-25 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Jim Hoover - 26-36 Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Ian Watson-Jones - 37-40 Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Patrick Wader & Mark A. Moon - 41-42 Regression Model Forecasts of the U. S. Presidential Election
by Randall Jones, Jr. & Alfred Cuzan - 43-49 Software Review of Forecast Pro Unlimited: An Off-the-Shelf Solution for Large-Volume Forecasting
by Ulrich Kusters & Janko Thyson
2008, Issue 10
- 5-7 The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction
by Paul Fields - 9-14 Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters
by Roy Pearson - 15-22 Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant
by Antonio García-Ferrer - 23-27 Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products: The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand
by Jerry Shan & Matthew Reimann & Fereydoon Safai - 29-34 Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán - 35-37 A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting
by Paul Goodwin - 38-40 Should We Define Forecast Error as E = F - A Or E = A - F?
by Kesten Green & Len Tashman
2008, Issue 9
- 5-7 Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning
by Roy Batchelor - 8-10 Predicting the Demand for New Products
by Paul Goodwin - 12-17 The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies
by Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan - 18-24 Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers
by Bruce Andrews & James Bennett & Lindsey Howe & Brooks Newkirk & Joseph Ogrodowczyk - 25-29 Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry
by Carol Gebert - 30-32 Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation
by Andreas Graefe - 33-35 A Primer on Prediction Markets
by Joe Miles - 36-41 Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages
by Sam Sugiyama - 43-48 “Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections
by Ira Sohn
2007, Issue 8
- 5-10 Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies
by Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin - 11-16 A Guide to Delphi
by Gene Rowe - 17-20 Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
by Kesten Green & J. Scott Armstrong & Andreas Graefe - 22-24 Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight
by John Boylan - 25-26 Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error
by Thomas R. Willemain - 26-27 Supply Risk and Costing Challenges
by Michael E. Smith - 28 Lost Sales and Customer Service
by Scott Roy - 29-30 Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries
by Peter M. Catt - 31-35 How to Project Patient Persistency
by Ka Lok Lee & Peter Fader & Bruce Hardie - 36-40 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by Allan J. Lichtman - 41-44 Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series
by Enrique de Alba & Manuel Mendoza - 45-46 Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
by Bill Bassin
2007, Issue 7
- 5-10 Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example
by Peter Maurice Catt - 11-16 An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors
by Roy Pearson - 17-22 Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations
by Lauge Valentin - 23-27 S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company
by John Mello & Terry Esper - 29-35 Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues
by Stephen Custer & Don Miller - 36-40 How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data
by Ellen Bonnell - 41-44 The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process
by James Borneman