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Merging models and experts

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  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

It is argued that for specific forecast settings there must exist an optimally-sized model with forecasts that only need occasional adjustments by experts. The argument is built on recent evidence on the interaction between models and experts. A consequence of this is that the future research agenda should involve more interaction between researchers in model-based forecasting and those who are engaged in judgemental forecasting research.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 31-33

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:31-33

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Henk Kranendonk & Debby Lanser & P.H. Franses, 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," CPB Discussion Paper 92, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Legerstee, R., 2007. "Does experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts contribute to forecast quality?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
  5. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  6. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2009. "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-637, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2008. "Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Claudio Felisoni de Angelo & Ronaldo Zwicker & Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto & Marcos Roberto Luppe, 2011. "Temporal series and neural networks: a comparative analysis of techniques in the Brazilian retail sales forecast," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 8(2), pages 01-21, April.
  4. Chang, C-L. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "How Accurate are Government Forecast of Economic Fundamentals?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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