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Linkages among commodity futures markets and dynamic welfare analysis

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  • Rausser, Gordon C.
  • Walraven, Nicholas A.

Abstract

This study constructs dynamic welfare measures for a system of futures markets that express the allocative efficiency of a particular market as a function of its accuracy and speed of adjustment following a shock to the system. The system comprises futures prices for T-bills, exchange rates (German mark, British pound, Canadian dollar and yen), and agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, and cotton) for delivery in 1981 and 1982. The results suggest that, although agricultural, exchange, and financial markets allover-react to a disturbance, agricultural markets do so to a much greater degree. Owing to their much greater size, however, the welfare loss arising from the overshooting is likely to be much larger for interest rate and exchange markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt3p3028t6.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt3p3028t6

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Keywords: economics; equilibrium; exchange rates; future trading; interest; prices; Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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Cited by:
  1. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
  2. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Working Papers 2013-019, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Schlenker, Wolfram & Villas-Boas, Sofia B, 2008. "Consumer and market responses to mad-cow disease," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1023, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  5. Stefani, Gianluca & Valli, Carlotta, 2004. "Exploring the Impacts of Risk Communication Policies on Welfare: Theoretical Aspects," 84th Seminar, February 8-11, 2004, Zeist, The Netherlands 24989, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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