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Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence

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Author Info

  • Loungani, Prakash
  • Stekler, Herman
  • Tamirisa, Natalia

Abstract

We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on the way in which advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth, and vice versa.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 605-621

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:4:p:605-621

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Efficiency; Turning points; Cross-country forecasts;

References

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  1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
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  12. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  13. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries," Working Paper Series 1082, European Central Bank.
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  16. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Prakash Loungani & Natalia Tamirisa, 2014. "Information Rigidities: Comparing Average And Individual Forecasts For A Large International Panel," Working Papers 2014-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

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