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Capacity utilization as a real-time predictor of manufacturing output

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  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

In this article, Evan F. Koenig demonstrates that the Federal Reserve Board's initial estimate of manufacturing capacity utilization is helpful in predicting subsequent growth in manufacturing output. Together with lagged real-time output growth and growth in the composite index of leading indicators, capacity utilization explains more than 50 percent of the variation in output growth at a four-quarter horizon. Based on data available at the beginning of the year, the forecasting equation predicts little or no growth in manufacturing output during 1996.

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File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1996/er9603b.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 16-23

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qiii:p:16-23

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Keywords: Industrial capacity ; Manufactures;

References

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  1. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  2. Richard D. Raddock, 1990. "Recent developments in industrial capacity and utilization," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 411-435.
  3. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
  4. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  5. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  7. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-17.
  8. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 181-242.
  9. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _130, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Duy, Timothy A. & Thoma, Mark A., 1998. "Modeling and Forecasting Cointegrated Variables: Some Practical Experience," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 291-307, May.
  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
  4. Kennedy, James E., 1998. "An Analysis of Time-Series Estimates of Capacity Utilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 169-187, January.
  5. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Stefan Erdorf & Nicolas Heinrichs, 2011. "Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 411-433, December.

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