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(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

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Author Info
D''Agostino, Antonello
Giannone, Domenico
Surico, Paolo

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Abstract

The ability of popular statistical methods, the Federal Reserve Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters to improve upon the forecasts of inflation and real activity from naive models has declined significantly during the most recent period of greater macroeconomic stability. The decline in the predictability of inflation is associated with a break down in the predictive power of real activity, especially in the housing sector. The decline in the predictability of real activity is associated with a break down in the predictive power of the term spread.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6594.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6594

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Keywords: Fed Greenbook; forecasting models; predictability; Survey of Professional Forecasts;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Error Correction Models," Discussion Papers 09-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors - Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 700, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," ECARES Working Papers 2008_008, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. D'Agostino, A & Whelan, K, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 6092, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has models’ forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Documents de Travail 215, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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