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Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland

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Abstract

The significance of credit risk models has increased with the introduction of new Basel accord known as Basel II. The aim of this study is default rate modeling. This paper follows the two possible approaches of a macro credit risk modeling. First, empirical models are investigated. Second, a latent factor model based on Merton's idea is introduced. Both of these models are derived from individual default probability models. We employed data over the time period from 1988 to 2003 of the Finnish economy. First, linear vector autoregressive models were used in the case of dynamic empirical model. We examined how significant macroeconomic indicators determined the default rate in the economy. However these models cannot provide microeconomic foundation as latent factor models. A one-factor model was estimated using disaggregated industrial data. This estimation can help understand relation between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. Models can be used for default rate prediction or stress testing by central authorities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2006/11.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision: Apr 2006
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2006_11

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Keywords: banking; credit risk; latent factor model; default rate;

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References

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  1. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0411, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  3. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  4. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
  5. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
  6. rea cipollini & giuseppe missaglia, 2005. "Business cycle effects on Portfolio Credit Risk: scenario generation through Dynamic Factor analysis," Finance 0502010, EconWPA.
  7. repec:fth:bfdipa:6/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  9. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Cited by:
  1. Claudia Miani & Giulio Nicoletti & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Banks’ balance sheets and the macroeconomy in the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 135, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Düllmann, Klaus & Koziol, Philipp, 2013. "Evaluation of minimum capital requirements for bank loans to SMEs," Discussion Papers 22/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
  4. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
  5. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September.
  6. Guler Aras & Lale Aslan, 2011. "Capital structure and credit risk management: evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20.

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