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Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland

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Author Info
Petr Jakubík () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)

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Abstract

The significance of credit risk models has increased with the introduction of new Basel accord known as Basel II. The aim of this study is default rate modeling. This paper follows the two possible approaches of a macro credit risk modeling. First, empirical models are investigated. Second, a latent factor model based on Merton's idea is introduced. Both of these models are derived from individual default probability models. We employed data over the time period from 1988 to 2003 of the Finnish economy. First, linear vector autoregressive models were used in the case of dynamic empirical model. We examined how significant macroeconomic indicators determined the default rate in the economy. However these models cannot provide microeconomic foundation as latent factor models. A one-factor model was estimated using disaggregated industrial data. This estimation can help understand relation between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. Models can be used for default rate prediction or stress testing by central authorities.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2006/11.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision: Apr 2006
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2006_11

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Related research
Keywords: banking; credit risk; latent factor model; default rate;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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  5. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March. [Downloadable!]
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  9. František Turnovec, 2006. "Publication Portfolio of the Czech Economists and Problems of Rankings," Working Papers IES 2006/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  10. Natálie Reichlová & Petr Švarc, 2006. "Strategic Referring in Labor Market Social Networks," Working Papers IES 2006/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part III. Asymptotic Representation," Working Papers IES 2007/07, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Karel Janda, 2007. "Instituce státní úvěrové podpory v České republice [available in Czech only]," Working Papers IES 2007/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  13. Adam Geršl, 2007. "Foreign Banks, Foreign Lending and Cross-Border Contagion: Evidence from the BIS Data," Working Papers IES 2007/08, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ondřej Schneider, 2007. "The EU Budget Dispute - A Blessing in Disguise?," Working Papers IES 2007/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
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