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Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system

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Author Info
Eva Catarineu-Rabell
Patricia Jackson
Dimitrios Tsomocos ()

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Abstract

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is proposing to introduce, in 2006, new risk-based requirements for internationally active (and other significant) banks. These will replace the relatively risk-invariant requirements in the current Accord. The new requirements for the largest bank will be based on bank ratings of the probability of default of the borrowers. There is evidence that the choice of loan ratings which are conditional on the point in the economic cycle could lead to sharp increases in capital requirements in recessions. This makes the question of which rating schemes banks will use very important. The paper uses a general equilibrium model of the financial system to explore whether banks would choose to use a countercyclical, procyclical or neutral rating scheme. The results indicate that banks would not choose a stable rating approach, which has important policy implications for the design of the Accord. It makes it important that banks are given incentives to adopt more stable rating schemes. This consideration has been reflected in the Committee’s latest proposals, in October 2002. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-004-0534-0
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 26 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 537-557
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:26:y:2005:i:3:p:537-557

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Related research
Keywords: Basel Accord; Bank rating; Endogenous default; Procyclicality; Risk weights.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, . "Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 132, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. " Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Regulatory and "economic" solvency standards for internationally active banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 953-976, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Jones, David, 2000. "Emerging problems with the Basel Capital Accord: Regulatory capital arbitrage and related issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 35-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1997. "Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States," Working Papers 97-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  14. Miguel Angel Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  15. Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
  16. Greenbaum, Stuart I. & Kanatas, George & Venezia, Itzhak, 1989. "Equilibrium loan pricing under the bank-client relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 221-235, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," FMG Discussion Papers dp428, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 2000. "Default in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1247, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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