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Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States

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Author Info
Joe Peek
Eric S. Rosengren

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Abstract

The dramatic 70 percent decline in Japanese commercial real estate prices from their peak in 1990 provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which a loan supply shock can affect real economic activity. Because the shock was external to U.S. credit markets, yet connected through the substantial penetration of U.S. lending markets by Japanese banks, this event allows us to identify an exogenous loan supply shock and ultimately link that shock to construction activity in major commercial real estate markets in the United States. We use panel data that exploit the variation across geographically distinct commercial real estate markets in the United States, both in degree of Japanese bank penetration and in local demand conditions, to establish conclusively that loan supply shocks emanating from loan problems in Japan had real effects on economic activity in the United States. Revised 1999.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 97-5.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Publication status: Published in American Economic Review (March 2000): 30-45
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:97-5

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Keywords: Credit;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Diana Hancock & James A. Wilcox, 1992. "The effect on bank assets of business conditions and capital shortfalls," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 502-520.
  3. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "An Adverse Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Steven A. Sharpe, 1995. "Bank capitalization, regulation, and the credit crunch: a critical review of the research findings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Allen B. Frankel & Paul B. Morgan, 1992. "Deregulation and competition in Japanese banking," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Aug, pages 579-593.
  8. Gibson, Michael S, 1995. "Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 281-308, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1990. "The role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 205-248. [Downloadable!]
  11. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Allen B. Frankel & Paul B. Morgan, 1992. "Deregulation and competition in Japanese banking," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 750-774.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P Tsomocos, . "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks' choice of loan rating system," Bank of England working papers 181, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-34. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lynn Elaine Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein & Jane Sneddon Little, 1998. "Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: lessons from Asia," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-32. [Downloadable!]
  5. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Miguel Angel Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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