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Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States

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Author Info

  • Joe Peek
  • Eric S. Rosengren

Abstract

The dramatic 70 percent decline in Japanese commercial real estate prices from their peak in 1990 provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which a loan supply shock can affect real economic activity. Because the shock was external to U.S. credit markets, yet connected through the substantial penetration of U.S. lending markets by Japanese banks, this event allows us to identify an exogenous loan supply shock and ultimately link that shock to construction activity in major commercial real estate markets in the United States. We use panel data that exploit the variation across geographically distinct commercial real estate markets in the United States, both in degree of Japanese bank penetration and in local demand conditions, to establish conclusively that loan supply shocks emanating from loan problems in Japan had real effects on economic activity in the United States. Revised 1999.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 97-5.

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Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in American Economic Review (March 2000): 30-45
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:97-5

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Keywords: Credit;

References

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  1. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1993. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Working Papers 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1993. "Equity and time to sale in the real estate market," Working Papers 93-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Allen B. Frankel & Paul B. Morgan, 1992. "Deregulation and competition in Japanese banking," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Aug, pages 579-593.
  4. Steven A. Sharpe, 1995. "Bank capitalization, regulation, and the credit crunch: a critical review of the research findings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Daniel E. Nolle & Rama Seth, 1996. "Do banks follow their customers abroad?," Research Paper 9620, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1990. "The Role of Banks in Reducing the Costs of Financial Distress in Japan," NBER Working Papers 3435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gibson, Michael S, 1995. "Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 281-308, July.
  10. Allen B. Frankel & Paul B. Morgan, 1992. "Deregulation and competition in Japanese banking," Proceedings 383, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
  13. Diana Hancock & James A. Wilcox, 1992. "The effect on bank assets of business conditions and capital shortfalls," Proceedings 373, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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Cited by:
  1. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-34.
  2. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P.Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - Banks' choice of loan rating system," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe06, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  3. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman & Amit Seru, 2011. "Financing Labor," NBER Working Papers 17144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank.
  5. Jérôme Teïletche & Florence Béranger, 2003. "Bâle II et la procyclicité," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(4), pages 227-250.
  6. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lynn Elaine Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein & Jane Sneddon Little, 1998. "Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: lessons from Asia," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-32.
  8. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
  9. Miguel Angel Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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