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Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it

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Author Info

  • Joe Peek
  • Eric S. Rosengren
  • Geoffrey M. B. Tootell

Abstract

Even in a world with rational expectations, it has been well established theoretically that if the central bank possesses information superior to that available to the public, there is room for effective and socially beneficial countercyclical monetary policy. This paper tests whether confidential information from bank supervisors could be one source of any such informational advantage. In particular, we examine whether information gained from bank supervision activities could substantially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables important for guiding monetary policy. We find that confidential supervisory information on bank ratings significantly improves private forecasts of inflation and unemployment rates, thus providing an informational advantage to the Federal Reserve.

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File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp1998/wp98_2.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 98-2.

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Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:98-2

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central;

References

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  1. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
  2. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  4. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 4821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  6. Diana Hancock & James A. Wilcox, 1992. "The effect on bank assets of business conditions and capital shortfalls," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 502-520.
  7. Allen Berger & Sally Davies, 1998. "The Information Content of Bank Examinations," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 117-144, October.
  8. Robert DeYoung & Mark J. Flannery & William W. Lang & Sorin M. Sorescu, 1998. "Could publication of bank CAMEL ratings improve market discipline?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 402-421.
  9. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
  10. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
  12. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  14. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  15. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  16. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  17. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
  18. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  19. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1996. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
  2. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies, 1994. "The information content of bank examinations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  6. Xavier Vives, 2001. "Restructuring Financial Regulation in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 57-82, February.
  7. Helge Berger & Marcel Thum, 2000. "News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 465-493, November.
  8. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  9. David T. Llewellyn, 1999. "The New Economics of Banking," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 5 edited by Morten Balling, 03.
  10. David Llewellyn, 1999. "The New Economics of Banking," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.

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