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An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios

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Author Info
Jesús Saurina () (Banco de España)
Carlos Trucharte () (Banco de España)
Abstract

In this paper we develop a probability of default (PD) model for mortgage loans, taking advantage of the Spanish Credit Register, a comprehensive database on loan characteristics and credit quality. From that model, we calculate different types of PDs: point in time, PIT, through the cycle, TTC, average across the cycle and acyclical. Then, we compare capital requirements coming from the different Basel II approaches. We show that minimum regulatory capital under Basel II can be very sensitive to the risk measurement methodology employed. Thus, the procyclicality of regulatory capital requirements under Basel II is an open question, depending on the way internal rating systems are implemented and their output is utilised. We focus on the mortgage portfolio since it is one of the most under researched areas regarding the impact of Basel II and because it is one of the most important banks’ portfolios.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0712e.pdf
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File Function: First version, May 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0712.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0712

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Related research
Keywords: procyclicality; basel ii; rating systems; mortgages;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Charles Goodhart, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
  2. Michael Ehrmann & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jorge Martinez-Pages & Patrick Sevestre & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 105, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Javier Delgado & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "The joint size and ownership specialization in banks' lending," Banco de España Working Papers 0606, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2002. "The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 303-322, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de España Working Papers 0414, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November. [Downloadable!]
  13. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31. [Downloadable!]
  15. Pennacchi, George G., 2005. "Risk-based capital standards, deposit insurance, and procyclicality," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 432-465, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2004. "Credit Risk versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Working Paper Series 162, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William Francis & Matthew Osborne, 2009. "On the Behaviour and Determinants of Risk-Based Capital Ratios: Revisiting the Evidence from UK Banking Institutions," Occasional Papers 31, Financial Services Authority. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bertrand Gruss & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards: An Assessment Using a DSGE Model," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/07, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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