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The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards: An Assessment Using a DSGE Model

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Bertrand Gruss
Silvia Sgherri

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Abstract

The ongoing financial turmoil has triggered a lively debate on ways of containing systemic risk and lessening the likelihood of future boom-and-bust episodes in credit markets. Particularly, it has been argued that banking regulation might attenuate procyclicality in lending standards by affecting the behavior of banks capital buffers. This paper uses a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to illustrate how procyclicality in borrowing limits reinforces the ”overreaction” of asset prices to shocks described by Aiyagari and Gertler (1999), and to quantify the stabilization gains from policies aimed at smoothing cyclical swings in credit conditions. Results suggest that, in financially constrained economies, the ensuing volatility reduction in equity prices, investment, and external imbalances would be sizable. In the presence of cross-border spillovers, gains would be even higher.

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Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2009/07.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2009/07

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Related research
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Collateral Constraints; DSGE Models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/20, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ayuso, Juan & Perez, Daniel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 249-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios," Banco de España Working Papers 0712, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne , Alistair, 2006. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Research Discussion Papers 17/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2006. "International business cycles with domestic and foreign lenders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2267-2282, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
  8. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fabio Ghironi & Talan B. Iscan & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/82, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1999. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 3-35, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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