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"Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium

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Author Info
S. Rao Aiyagari
Mark Gertler

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Abstract

We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock pushes asset prices to a low enough level at which the margin constraint binds, traders are forced to liquidate assets. This drives asset prices below what they would be with frictionless markets. Also, a shock which simply increases the likelihood that the margin constraint will bind can have a very similar effect on asset prices. We construct a general equilibrium model with margin constrained traders and derive some qualitative properties of asset prices. We present an analytical solution for a deterministic version of the model and a simple numerical computation of the stochastic version.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6747.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6747

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philip L. Brock, 2009. "Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Adjustment in an Open Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2009-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops? A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff," IMF Working Papers 06/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 9927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Nouriel Roubini & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 62, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Emine Boz, 2006. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? An Informational Frictions Explanation of Emerging Markets Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 19, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Silvia Sgherri & Bertrand Gruss, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards:An Assessment Using a DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 09/35, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Fricciones crediticias y 'paradas repentinas' en pequeñas economías abiertas: un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico para crisis en mercados emergentes," RES Working Papers 4308, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sylvain Leduc, 2000. "Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium," Working Papers 00-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2004. "Putting the brakes on Sudden Stops: the financial frictions-moral hazard tradeoff of asset price guarantees," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2004-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bernhard Eckwert & Burkhard Drees, 2005. "Asset Mispricing Due to Cognitive Dissonance," IMF Working Papers 05/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," NBER Working Papers 5610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," RES Working Papers 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/223, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. CASTRO, Rui, 2005. "Economic Development under Alternative Trade Regimes," Cahiers de recherche 2005-02, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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