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Financial autarky and international business cycles

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  • Heathcote, Jonathan
  • Perri, Fabrizio

Abstract

We present a two-country, two-good model in which there do not exist any markets for international trade in financial assets. We compare the predictions of this model to those of two other models, one in which markets are complete and a second in which a single non-contingent bond is traded. We find that only the financial autarky model can generate volatility in the terms of trade similar to that in data for floating rate period and, at the same time, account for observed cross-country output, consumption, investment and employment correlations. We interpret our findings as evidence that the extent of international borrowing and lending opportunities is important for the international business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 49 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 601-627

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:49:y:2002:i:3:p:601-627

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, January.
  3. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 907-928, May.
  5. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Characterizing Cross-Country Consumption Correlations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 169-174, February.
  9. Harold L. Cole, 1993. "The macroeconomic effects of world trade in financial assets," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 12-21.
  10. Arvanitis, Athanasios V & Mikkola, Anne, 1996. "Asset-Market Structure and International Trade Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 67-70, May.
  11. Michael P. Leahy, 1998. "New summary measures of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 811-818.
  12. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
  13. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  14. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-97, April.
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