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Net Exports, Consumption Volatility and International Real Business Cycle Models

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  • Andrea Raffo

    ()
    (Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas City)

Abstract

Conventional two-country RBC models interpret countercyclical net exports as reflecting, in large part, the dynamics of capital. I show that, quantitatively, theoretical economies rely on counterfactual terms of trade effects: trade fluctuations, on the contrary, are driven primarily by consumption smoothing, thus generating procyclical net trade in goods. I then consider a class of preferences that embeds home production in a reduced form: consumption volatility increases so that countercyclical net exports reflect primarily a strong relation between import of goods and income, as in the data. The major discrepancy between theory and data concerns the variability of international prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 128.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:128

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Keywords: Net exports; Home production; Consumption volatility.;

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Cited by:
  1. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," Studies in Economics 1115, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
  4. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/86, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2006. "S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/36, European University Institute.
  6. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April.

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