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Characterizing Cross-Country Consumption Correlations

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

General equilibrium models of international fluctuations that assume complete asset markets predict that consumption will be highly correlated across countries, while the data display correlations that are rather low. It has become common to characterize this empirical regularity by noting that cross-country consumption correlations tend to be lower than corresponding output correlations. This note reconsiders that characterization and demonstrates that it is not particularly robust. It also documents a related regularity that is more pervasive: Consumption fluctuations are more highly correlated with domestic production than with world output. This provides an alternative standard for evaluating models of international fluctuations. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 169-174

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:1:p:169-174

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References

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1990. "Realistic Cross-Country Consumption Correlations in a Two-Country, Equilibrium, Business Cycle Model," Working Papers 774, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  3. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  6. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29.
  7. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Cantor, Richard & Mark, Nelson C, 1988. "The International Transmission of Real Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 493-507, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2000. "Consumption risk-sharing across G-7 countries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 3-14.
  2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
  3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The threshold consumption correlation-based approach to international capital mobility: Evidence from advanced and developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 256-263.
  4. Kim, H. Youn, 2014. "International financial integration and risk sharing among countries: A production-based approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 16-35.
  5. Michael R. Pakko, 1997. "Trade, investment, and international borrowing in two-country business cycle models," Working Papers 1997-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Fanelli, Luca & Gardini, Attilio, 2006. "Regional consumption dynamics and risk sharing in Italy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 525-542.
  7. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion & Akito Matsumoto, 2012. "International risk sharing during the globalization era," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 394-416, May.
  8. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2013. "Robust Control, Informational Frictions, and International Consumption Correlations," Working Papers 212013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Michael W. Klein, 1998. "Risky Habits: On Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations," NBER Working Papers 6735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pakko Michael R., 2003. "Substitution Elasticities and Investment Dynamics in Two-Country Business Cycle Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, November.
  11. Michael R. Pakko, 1996. "International risk sharing and low cross-country consumption correlations: are they really inconsistent?," Working Papers 1994-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Pakko, Michael R., 2004. "A spectral analysis of the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 341-347, September.
  13. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.

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