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International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles

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Author Info
Christian Zimmermann () (Center for Research on Economic Fluctuations and Employment, UQAM)

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Abstract

Using quarterly national accounts for 19 industrialized economies, the business cycle behavior of trade related aggregates and prices is assessed. Emphasis is put on the distinction between small, relatively open, and large, relatively closed, economies. Comparing those facts with the computational experiments of international real business cycle models, several puzzles are studied or uncovered. Finally, we determine which fatcs are crucial for international business cycle models, that is, in which direction current research should pursue.

Nous étudions, pour 19 pays industrialisés, le comportement cyclique d'agrégats et de prix trimestriels liés au commerce international. La distinction entre les petits pays, plus ouverts, et les grands pays, relativement fermés au commerce extérieur, est mise en évidence. En comparant ces faits stylisés avec les prédictions de modèles internationaux du cycle réel, nous analysons plusieurs énigmes, dont certaines sont nouvelles. Finalement, nous déterminons quels faits stylisés sont cruciaux pour un modèle international du cycle, donc dans quelle direction la recherche doit s'orienter.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 37.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1995
Date of revision: Aug 1997
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:37

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Related research
Keywords: open economy macroeconomics; international trade; business cycles; small countries;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  2. Finn, Mary G., 1990. "On savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 1-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Christian Zimmermann, 1996. "International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries," Macroeconomics 9607002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  10. Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 204-20, May.
  11. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "Technology Innovations and the Volatility of Output: An International Perspective," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 34, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  17. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  18. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Blackburn, K. & Ravn, M.O., 1991. "Contemporary Macroeconomics Fluctuations : An International Perspective," Economics Working Papers 1991-132, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  21. Zimmermann, Christian, 1999. "International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 682-98, November.
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  22. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Allen C. Head, 1995. "Country Size, Aggregate Fluctuations, and International Risk Sharing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4b), pages 1096-1119, November.
  24. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M. Ayhan Kose & William Blankenau, 2006. "How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?," IMF Working Papers 06/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Gail, 1998. "Stylized Facts and International Business Cycles - The German Case," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 69-98, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht, revised 09 Jul 2000. [Downloadable!]
  3. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," Working Paper Series 849, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 38, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Almuth Scholl, 2002. "Limited Enforceable International Loans, International Risk Sharing and Trade," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-055, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eva Ortega, . "The Spanish business cycle and its relationship to Europe," Studies on the Spanish Economy 09, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Zimmermann, 2001. "Forecasting with Real Business Cycle Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 131, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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