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¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango T.

    ()

  • Mauricio Castillo

Abstract

Desde comienzos de siglo los economistas han estudiado los fenómenos recurrentes de auge y declive de la actividad económica. Prueba de ello son las investigaciones de Mitchell (1913, 1927), Kuznets (1926), y Mills (1936), así como el interés permanente del NBER en generar la información relacionada con dichos fenómenos para la economía norteamericana. Desde entonces los enfoques y la profundidad de las investigaciones han variado. Así, tanto las fases como los comovimientos y las características comunes (similitudes) de los ciclos han sido objeto de estudio por parte de los economistas. Sobre las fases, Mitchell (1913, 1927) destacó la existencia de expansiones, recesiones, contracciones y recuperaciones a lo largo del ciclo, mientras que Kuznets (1926) observó la existencia de algunas similitudes entre algunas economías a lo largo del ciclo económico. En relación con los comovimientos (contemporáneos, rezagados o adelantados) entre algunas variables económicas, Mills (1936) señaló la existencia de correlaciones entre precios y cantidades durante las expansiones y las contracciones económicas: correlaciones de signo positivo entre dichas variables eran indicativas de ciclos inducidos por fenómenos de demanda, mientras que correlaciones negativas eran indicativas de ciclos inducidos por la oferta. Después del surgimiento de la corriente Keynesiana, con la cual la determinación del ingreso ganó la mayor importancia, las discusiones sobre el ciclo económico pasaron a un segundo plano y fue sólo hasta Lucas (1972, 1975) cuando la caracterización de las fluctuaciones así como la explicación de sus causas se retomó con especial interés1. Sin embargo, ha sido durante las dos últimas décadas cuando se ha visto un mayor desarrollo en el estudio y medición sistemática de las fluctuaciones económicas, lo cual ha provocado un considerable debate macroeconómico. Una parte de estas investigaciones ha sido ensamblada en un cuerpo teórico conocido como enfoque del Ciclo Económico Real (CER), propuesto inicialmente por Kydland y Prescott (1982) y Long y Plosser (1983).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003835.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 28 Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003835

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  1. Pierre Danthine, Jean & Donaldson, John B., 1993. "Methodological and empirical issues in real business cycle theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-35, January.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  6. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  7. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
  8. In-Moo Kim & Prakash Loungani, 1991. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  12. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill36-1, June.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December.
  15. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  17. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  18. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December.
  19. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, . "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Colombiana:Fundamentos Empíricos para la Construcción y Evaluación de un Modelo DSGE," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004602, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Adolfo Barajas & Enrique López & Hugo Oliveros, . "¿Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido," Borradores de Economia 185, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
    [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]
    ," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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