Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations

Contents:

Author Info

  • Luo, Yulei
  • Nie, Jun
  • Young, Eric R.

Abstract

In this paper we examine the effects of model misspecification (robustness or RB) on international consumption correlations in an otherwise standard small open economy model with endogenous capital accumulation. We show that in the presence of capital mobility in financial markets, RB lowers the international consumption correlations by generating heterogeneous responses of consumption to productivity shocks across countries facing different macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, we show that RB can also improve the model's predictions in three other moments of consumption dynamics: the relative volatility of consumption to income, the persistence of consumption, and the correlation between consumption and output. After calibrating the RB parameter using the detection error probabilities, we show that the model can explain the observed international consumption correlations as well as the other consumption moments quantitatively. Finally, we show that the main conclusions of our benchmark model do not change in an extension in which the agent cannot observe the state perfectly due to finite information-processing capacity.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292114000026
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 67 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 1-27

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:1-27

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

Related research

Keywords: Robustness; Imperfect state observation; International consumption correlations; Consumption dynamics;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kraay, A. & Ventura, J., 1997. "Current Acounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," Working papers 97-12, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
  4. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Introduction to Robustness," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  6. Mario J. Crucini, 1999. "On International and National Dimensions of Risk Sharing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 73-84, February.
  7. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," Working Papers 04-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Michael W. Klein, 1998. "Risky Habits: On Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations," NBER Working Papers 6735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Yulei Luo, 2010. "Rational Inattention, Long-run Consumption Risk, and Portfolio Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 843-860, October.
  10. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Characterizing Cross-Country Consumption Correlations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 169-174, February.
  11. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  12. Christopher D. Carroll & Johns Hopkins University, 2006. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 21, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Inattentive Producers," NBER Working Papers 11820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-84, December.
  15. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Current Accounts in the Long and Short Run," NBER Working Papers 9030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderström, 2007. "Monetary policy in a small open economy with a preference for robustness," Working Paper Series 2007-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2004. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Jul 2005.
  18. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  19. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge," Working Paper Series 0223, European Central Bank.
  21. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Risk-Sensitive Consumption and Savings under Rational Inattention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 281-325, October.
  22. Baxter, M. & Jermann, U.J., 1993. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse than you Think," RCER Working Papers 350, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  23. Tesar, Linda L., 1993. "International risk-sharing and non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 69-89, August.
  24. Jaime Marquez, 2004. "Productivity, investment, and current accounts: Reassessing the evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 282-301, June.
  25. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International business cycles with endogenous incomplete markets," Staff Report 265, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nistic�, 2012. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 144-89, January.
  27. Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robust policymaking in the face of sudden stops," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 512-527.
  28. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  29. Fabio Canova & Morten O. Ravn, 1993. "International consumption risk sharing," Economics Working Papers 135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1995.
  30. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  32. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.
  33. Yulei Luo, 2005. "Consumption Dynamics under Information Processing Constraints," Macroeconomics 0505011, EconWPA, revised 03 Jun 2005.
  34. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Noisy Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 319-378 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
  36. Devereux, Michael B. & Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-16, February.
  37. Eric van Wincoop & Cedric Tille, 2008. "A New Perspective on "The New Rule"of the Current Account," 2008 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  38. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robustness, information–processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 104-120.
  39. Hansen, Lars Peter & Mayer, Ricardo & Sargent, Thomas, 2010. "Robust hidden Markov LQG problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1951-1966, October.
  40. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2012. "International Robust Disagreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 152-55, May.
  41. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-97, April.
  42. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  43. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  44. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2012. "Sticky information diffusion and the inertial behavior of durable consumption," Research Working Paper RWP 12-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  45. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for a Model of Precautionary Saving," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 385-95, April.
  46. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2014. "Signal Extraction And Rational Inattention," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 811-829, 04.
  47. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  48. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "Precautionary saving and persistent current account imbalance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 179-193, February.
  49. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
  50. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J. & Wang, Neng E., 2002. "Robust Permanent Income And Pricing With Filtering," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 40-84, February.
  51. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2012. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Research Working Paper RWP 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2012. "Model uncertainty, state uncertainty, and state-space models," Research Working Paper RWP 12-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robustness, information–processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 104-120.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:1-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.