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Trade, investment, and international borrowing in two-country business cycle models

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Michael R. Pakko

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Abstract

Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies a new anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: the prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to (counterfactual) implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. Although the introduction of investment adjustment costs can reverse this anomaly, it has the side-effect of inducing the wrong cyclical behavior for net exports. Possible resolutions to this puzzle are considered, including asset market restrictions and the role of the substitution elasticities.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-023.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-023

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Keywords: Business cycles ; International trade ; Balance of trade;

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International business cycles with endogenous incomplete markets," Staff Report 265, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cole, Harold, 1988. "Financial Structure and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 237-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stockman, Alan C. & Dellas, Harris, 1989. "International portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 271-289, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cantor, Richard & Mark, Nelson C, 1988. "The International Transmission of Real Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 493-507, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Feeney, JoAnne & Jones, Ronald W, 1994. "Risk Aversion and International Markets: Does Asset Trade Smooth Real Income?," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 13-26, February.
  10. Devereux, Michael B. & Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," NBER Working Papers 4308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Michael R. Pakko, 1994. "Characterizing cross-country consumption correlations," Working Papers 1994-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  16. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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