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S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks

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  • Zeno Enders
  • Gernot J. Mueller

Abstract

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series, we find that technology shocks induce an ‘S’- shaped cross-correlation function for the trade balance and the terms of trade (S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical international business cycle model to match the S-curve under complete and incomplete financial markets, we find two distinct sets of parameter values. While both model specifications deliver the S-curve, the underlying transmission mechanism of technology shocks is fundamentally different. Most importantly, only in the incomplete markets economy the terms of trade appreciate and thus amplify the relative wealth effects of technology shocks - as suggested by time series evidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2006/36.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2006/36

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Keywords: S-curve; Technology shocks; Terms of trade; Trade balance; Incomplete markets;

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 866, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2007. "Productivity and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2007-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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