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Net exports, consumption volatility, and international real business cycle models

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  • Andrea Raffo

Abstract

Conventional two-country RBC models interpret countercyclical net exports as reflecting, in large part, the dynamics of capital. I show that, quantitatively, theoretical economies rely on counterfactual terms of trade effects: trade fluctuations, on the contrary, are driven primarily by consumption smoothing, thus generating procyclical net trade in goods. I then consider a class of preferences that embeds home production in a reduced form: consumption volatility increases so that countercyclical net exports reflect primarily a strong relation between income and imports, as in the data. The major discrepancy between theory and data concerns the variability of international prices.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 06-01.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp06-01

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Exports;

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Cited by:
  1. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Mueller, 2006. "S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/36, European University Institute.
  3. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April.
  4. Jian Wang & Charles Engel, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," 2008 Meeting Papers 210, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies," IMF Working Papers 08/86, International Monetary Fund.

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