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The international dimension of productivity and demand shocks in the U.S. economy

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

Identifying productivity and real demand shocks in the US with sign restrictions based on standard theory, we provide evidence on real and financial channels of their international propagation. Productivity gains in US manufacturing have substantial macroeconomic effects, raising US consumption, investment and the terms of trade, relative to the rest of the world, while lowering US net exports. Significant international financial adjustment occurs via a rise in the global value of the US stock market, portfolio shifts in US foreign assets and liabilities, and especially real dollar appreciation. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also lead to real appreciation and raise investment, but have otherwise limited effects on trade flows. This evidence suggests a fundamental role of cross-country endogenous demand and wealth movements in shaping international macroeconomic interdependence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2009-09.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2009-09

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Keywords: Productivity ; Trade ; Foreign exchange rates;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403 - 466.
  2. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2008. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates? New evidence for the United States," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
  5. Sá, F. & Wieladek, T., 2011. "Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1141, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, 2012. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Working Papers 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.

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