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Characterizing cross-country consumption correlations

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

General equilibrium models of international fluctuations which assume complete asset markets predict that consumption will be highly correlated across countries, while the data display correlations which are rather low. It is common to characterize this empirical regularity by noting that cross-country consumption correlations tend to be lower than corresponding output correlations. This paper reconsiders that characterization and demonstrates that it is not particularly robust. The paper also documents a related regularity that is more pervasive: Consumption fluctuations are more highly correlated with domestic production than with world output. Implications for the evaluation of theoretical models are discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1994-026.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1998, 80(1), pp. 169-74
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-026

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Consumption (Economics);

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References

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  1. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  2. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  3. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  5. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
  9. Cantor, Richard & Mark, Nelson C, 1988. "The International Transmission of Real Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 493-507, August.
  10. Devereux, Michael B. & Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-16, February.
  11. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael R. Pakko, 2004. "A spectral analysis of the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2003-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The threshold consumption correlation-based approach to international capital mobility: Evidence from advanced and developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 256-263.
  4. Akito Matsumoto & Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2009. "International Risk Sharing During the Globalization Era," IMF Working Papers 09/209, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Fanelli, Luca & Gardini, Attilio, 2006. "Regional consumption dynamics and risk sharing in Italy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 525-542.
  6. Yulei Luo & Eric R.Young & Jun Nie, 2011. "Robust Control, Informational Frictions, and International Consumption Correlations," 2011 Meeting Papers 209, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Kim, H. Youn, 2014. "International financial integration and risk sharing among countries: A production-based approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 16-35.
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Michael W. Klein, 2006. "Risky Habits: on Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 722-740, 09.
  9. Pakko, Michael R, 1997. "International Risk Sharing and Low Cross-Country Consumption Correlations: Are They Really Inconsistent?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 386-400, August.
  10. Michael R. Pakko, 2003. "Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models," Working Papers 2002-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Michael R. Pakko, 1997. "Trade, investment, and international borrowing in two-country business cycle models," Working Papers 1997-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
  13. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2000. "Consumption risk-sharing across G-7 countries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 3-14.

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