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Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

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  • Bellotti, Tony
  • Crook, Jonathan

Abstract

Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to model Loss Given Default in downturn conditions, as required by Basel II, and enables stress testing. We find that bank interest rates and the unemployment level significantly affect LGD.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:1:p:171-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2006. "A Multi-Factor Approach for Systematic Default and Recovery Risk," Springer Books, in: Bernd Engelmann & Robert Rauhmeier (ed.), The Basel II Risk Parameters, chapter 0, pages 105-125, Springer.
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    3. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    4. Bernd Engelmann & Robert Rauhmeier (ed.), 2006. "The Basel II Risk Parameters," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-33087-5, November.
    5. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
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