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Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?

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  • William R. White
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    Abstract

    The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of both inflation and output. At the same time, numerous financial and other "imbalances" (defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms) have emerged. Should these imbalances revert to the mean, there could be significant effects on output growth. Although such an adverse outcome remains only a possibility, the question asked in this paper is whether we might still benefit from a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework in which monetary and regulatory policies gave more attention to avoiding the emergence of imbalances in the first place.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 193.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:193

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    Keywords: economic policy; financial stability;

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    References

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    1. Laidler,David, 1999. "Fabricating the Keynesian Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521641739, April.
    2. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    3. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
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    Cited by:
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    3. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    4. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    5. William R White, 2008. "Globalisation and the determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 250, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Alasdair Scott & Pau Rabanal & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-Up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/252, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 21, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    9. Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
    10. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2008. "Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 2008/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    11. Yılmaz AKYÜZ, 2004. "Managing financial instability and shocks," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(219), pages 5-17.
    12. Ivo Maes, 2010. "Alexandre Lamfalussy and the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 63(254), pages 265-292.
    13. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality of Financial and Real Sector in Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349.

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