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Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework

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Author Info

  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

  • Dimitrios Tsomocos

    ()

Abstract

The introduction of Basel II has raised concerns about the potential impact of risk-sensitive capital requirements on the business cycle. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the procyclicality issue. In this paper, we adopt a general equilibrium model and conduct comprehensive analysis of different proposals. We set out a model that allows to evaluate different rating systems in relation to the procyclicality issue. Our model extends previous models by analysing the effects of different rating systems on banks’ portfolios (as in Catarineu-Rabell et al. 2005) and the contagion effects relevant to financial stability (as in Goodhart et al. 2005). The paper presents comparative statics results comparing a cycle-dependent and a neutral rating system from the point of view of banks profit maximization. Our results suggest that banks’ preferences about point in time or through the cycle rating systems depend on the banks’ characteristics and on the business cycle conditions in terms of expectations and realizations.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10436-009-0128-8
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Annals of Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 33-49

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Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:33-49

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112370

Related research

Keywords: Procyclicality; Rating systems; Basel II; General equilibrium; D58; E44; G21; G38;

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References

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  1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
  2. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  4. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, 09.
  5. Jokivuolle , Esa & Vesala, Timo, 2007. "Portfolio effects and efficiency of lending under Basel II," Research Discussion Papers 13/2007, Bank of Finland.
  6. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  7. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
  8. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
  10. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  11. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  12. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. C. Goodhart & M. Peiris & D. Tsomocos & A. Vardoulakis, 2010. "On dividend restrictions and the collapse of the interbank market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 455-473, October.
  2. Olivier Bruno & Alexandra Girod, 2013. "Procyclicality and Bank Portfolio Risk Level under a Constant Leverage Ratio," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  3. Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro & Dimas M. Fazio, 2010. "Financial Fragility in a General Equilibrium Model: the Brazilian case," Working Papers Series 229, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis Daniilidis, 2011. "Procyclicality in the banking industry: causes, consequences and response," Working Papers 139, Bank of Greece.

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