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A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

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  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Pojanart Sunirand
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Abstract

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2003,2004a, b) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the U.K. banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2004fe18.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2004fe18

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Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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Keywords: Financial Fragility; Systemic Risk; U.K. Banking System; Default;

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  1. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  4. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-05, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Jorge Aseff & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Stock options and managerial optimal contracts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 813-837, November.
  6. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord–banks’ choice of loan rating system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
  8. Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," FMG Discussion Papers dp548, Financial Markets Group.
  9. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08.
  10. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G. M. & Tsomocos, D. P., 1995. "Option values and endogenous uncertainty in ESOPs, MBOs and asset-backed loans," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 379-388, June.
  11. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  13. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2000. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June.
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