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A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

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  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Pojanart Sunirand
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Abstract

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2003,2004a, b) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the U.K. banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2004fe18.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2004fe18

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Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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Keywords: Financial Fragility; Systemic Risk; U.K. Banking System; Default;

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  1. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08.
  2. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July.
  4. Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," FMG Discussion Papers dp548, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  6. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
  7. Manuel Santos & Jorge Aseff, . "Stock Options and Managerial Optimal Contracts," Working Papers 2133304, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  8. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  9. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord–banks’ choice of loan rating system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  11. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  12. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G. M. & Tsomocos, D. P., 1995. "Option values and endogenous uncertainty in ESOPs, MBOs and asset-backed loans," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 379-388, June.
  13. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June.
  14. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
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