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A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

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Author Info
Charles A.E. Goodhart
Pojanart Sunirand
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

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Abstract

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2003,2004a, b) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the U.K. banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors.

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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2004fe18.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2004fe18

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Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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Related research
Keywords: Financial Fragility; Systemic Risk; U.K. Banking System; Default;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking and financial instability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 619-655, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jorge Aseff & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Stock options and managerial optimal contracts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 813-837, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  10. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, . "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P.Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - Banks' choice of loan rating system," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe06, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," FMG Discussion Papers dp548, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Martin Summer & Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," Working Paper Series 6806, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David Pérez-Reyna, . "Una aproximación para analizar la estabilidad financiera por medio de un DSGE," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 040, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Boris Hofmann & C. A. E. Goodhart, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/223, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. C.A.E. Goodhart & P. Sunirand & D.P. Tsomocos, 2008. "The Optimal Monetary Instrument for Prudential Purposes," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe26, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Agustín Saade & Daniel Osorio & Dairo Estrada, 2007. "An equilibrium approach to financial stability analysis: the Colombian case," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 75-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mizuho Kida, 2008. "A macro stress testing model with feedback effects," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  7. Oriol Aspachs & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2006. "Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, . "A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion," Borradores de Economia 384, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A. E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Banks, Relative Performance, and Sequential Contagion," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Dimitrios Tsomocos & C.A.E. Goodhart, 2007. "Analysis of Financial Stability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2007fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Dairo Estrada & Daniel Osorio, 2006. "A Market Risk Approach To Liquidity Risk And Financial Contagion," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001921, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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