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Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity

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  • Carlson Mark A

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

  • King Thomas

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

  • Lewis Kurt

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

Abstract

We construct daily market-based measures of distance to default for large U.S. financial institutions since 1973. These measures have significant predictive power for institution bankruptcy more than one year in advance. We aggregate the distances to default across institutions to provide an index of the overall health of the financial-services industry. We show that deteriorations in this Financial Institution Health Index are associated with tighter lending standards and higher interest rates on bank loans and precede declines in employment and industrial production. We argue that this points to the condition of financial institutions as an independent source of macroeconomic variability, distinct from traditional accelerator mechanisms.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:11:y:2011:i:1:n:35

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
  2. Jean-Michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions ?," Working Papers 2014-324, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. Yasin Mimir, 2013. "Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles," Working Papers 1313, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Piti Disyatat, 2010. "The bank lending channel revisited," BIS Working Papers 297, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2012. "Asymmetric information in credit markets, bank leverage cycles and macroeconomic dynamics," Working Paper Research 224, National Bank of Belgium.
  7. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  8. Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
  9. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
  10. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: "Fuzzy" Measurement and its Consequences," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 544, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo C., 2009. "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de "fondos prestables"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005388, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
  13. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.

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