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Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity

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  • Carlson Mark A

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

  • King Thomas

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

  • Lewis Kurt

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

Abstract

We construct daily market-based measures of distance to default for large U.S. financial institutions since 1973. These measures have significant predictive power for institution bankruptcy more than one year in advance. We aggregate the distances to default across institutions to provide an index of the overall health of the financial-services industry. We show that deteriorations in this Financial Institution Health Index are associated with tighter lending standards and higher interest rates on bank loans and precede declines in employment and industrial production. We argue that this points to the condition of financial institutions as an independent source of macroeconomic variability, distinct from traditional accelerator mechanisms.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:11:y:2011:i:1:n:35

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2012. "Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets, Bank Leverage Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62035, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  3. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, 06.
  4. Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
  5. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo C., 2009. "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de “fondos prestables"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005388, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
  7. Mimir, Yasin, 2012. "Financial intermediaries, credit Shocks and business cycles," MPRA Paper 39648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1574, European Central Bank.
  9. Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.

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