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Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies

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Author Info
Marco Sorge (World Bank Group - International Finance Corporation)
Abstract

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of macro stress-testing methodologies. Substantial progress has been made both in the econometric analysis of financial soundness indicators and in the simulation of value-at-risk measures to assess system-wide vulnerabilities. However, a number of methodological challenges still remain concerning the correlation of market and credit risks over time and across institutions, the limited time horizon generally used for the analysis and the potential instability of reduced-form parameter estimates because of feedback effects. Further research in this area might also focus on how to use macro stress-testing techniques as an operational tool to incorporate financial stability considerations into monetary policy decision-making.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 165.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:165

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Related research
Keywords: Macro stress-testing; financial soundness indicators; value at risk; feedback effects;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

Cited by:
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  1. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001915, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts & Mostafa Tabbae, 2006. "Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing," DNB Working Papers 119, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Renato Filosa, 2007. "Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0703, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Banco de España Working Papers 0722, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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