Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment
AbstractWe propose a new method for the analysis of systemic stability of a banking system relying mostly on market data. We model both asset correlations and interlinkages from interbank borrowing so that our analysis gauges two major sources of systemic risk: correlated exposures and mutual credit relations that may cause domino effects of insolvencies. We apply our method to a data set of the ten major UK banks and analyze insolvency risk over a one-year horizon. We also suggest a stress-testing procedure by analyzing the conditional asset return distribution that results from the hypothetical failure of individual institutions in this system. Rather than looking at individual bank defaults ceteris paribus, we take the change in the asset return distribution and the resulting change in the risk of all other banks into account. This takes previous stress tests of interlinkages a substantial step further.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 817.
Date of creation: 19 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Central Banking Number 1.Volume(2006): pp. 137-165
Systemic Risk; Financial Stability; Stress Testing; Interbank Market;
Other versions of this item:
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2006-11-25 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2006-11-25 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004.
"Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004.
"Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system,"
Working Paper Research
43, National Bank of Belgium.
- Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Discussion Paper 2004-4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Gianni De NicolÃ³ & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2004.
"Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector,"
DNB Working Papers
005, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Simon Wells, 2004. "Financial interlinkages in the United Kingdom's interbank market and the risk of contagion," Bank of England working papers 230, Bank of England.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
- Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
- Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
- Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.