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Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe

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Author Info
Reint Gropp (European Business School and Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW))
Marco Lo Duca (European Central Bank)
Jukka Vesala (Financial Supervision Authority of Finland (Fin-FSA), Helsinki)

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Abstract

We analyze cross-border contagion among European banks in the period from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate, in a given country, the number of banks that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in distance to default of banks.We find evidence of significant cross-border contagion among large European banks, which is consistent with a tiered cross-border interbank structure. The results also suggest that contagion increased after the introduction of the euro. JEL Codes: G21, F36, G15.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 97-139
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:1:a:4

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  6. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  7. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Mark J. Flannery & Simon H. Kwan & M. Nimalendran, 1997. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 470-485.
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  16. Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline," Finance 0411015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December. [Downloadable!]
  18. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
  21. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2004. "Interbank exposures : an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Discussion Paper 4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  22. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Li L. Ong & Srobona Mitra & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio Moneta & Rasmus Rüffer, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Annette Kamps, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 665, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "International banking with the euro," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernd Schnatz, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.


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