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Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe

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Author Info

  • Reint Gropp

    (European Business School and Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW))

  • Marco Lo Duca

    (European Central Bank)

  • Jukka Vesala

    (Financial Supervision Authority of Finland (Fin-FSA), Helsinki)

Abstract

We analyze cross-border contagion among European banks in the period from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate, in a given country, the number of banks that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in distance to default of banks.We find evidence of significant cross-border contagion among large European banks, which is consistent with a tiered cross-border interbank structure. The results also suggest that contagion increased after the introduction of the euro. JEL Codes: G21, F36, G15.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 97-139
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:1:a:4

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References

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  1. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
  2. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, M., 2004. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 419-460, March.
  4. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  6. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001. "A new approach to measuring financial contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 489-529.
  10. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
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  14. Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline," Finance 0411015, EconWPA.
  15. Xavier Freixas & Cornelia Holthausen, 2001. "Interbank market integration under asymmetric information," Economics Working Papers 579, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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  20. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  21. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November.
  22. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  23. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Reint Gropp & Anil K Kashyap, 2010. "A New Metric for Banking Integration in Europe," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 219-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alan D. Morrison & Lucy White, 2010. "Reputational contagion and optimal regulatory forbearance," Working Paper Series 1196, European Central Bank.
  3. Marek Stefański, 2010. "Banking Sectors in the new European Union Member States," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 4(1), March.
  4. Li L. Ong & Srobona Mitra & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2012. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Regional Perspective," Discussion Paper 2012-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Martín Saldías, 2011. "A Market-based Approach to Sector Risk Determinants and Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers w201130, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 209-240.
  8. Toivanen, Mervi, 2009. "Financial interlinkages and risk of contagion in the Finnish interbank market," Research Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland.
  9. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "International banking with the euro," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  10. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Degryse, Hans & Ather Elahi, Muhammad & Penas, María Fabiana, 2012. "Determinants of banking system fragility: A regional perspective," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/338821, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

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