IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpfi/0411015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline

Author

Listed:
  • Reint Gropp

    (European Central Bank)

  • Vesala Jukka

    (European Central Bank)

  • Giuseppe Vulpes

    (UniCredit Banca d'Impresa)

Abstract

We examine whether two commonly used indicators of bank fragility, the subordinated debt spread and KMV’s distance to default, yield signals in line with supervisors’ interests. We argue that supervisors would prefer indicators that are strictly increasing in earnings, and decreasing in leverage and earnings volatility. Using standard option pricing, we show that the two indicators do indeed satisfy these properties if the firm is still solvent. We also summarise the results from a test of these properties in a sample of EU banks during the 1990s. The results suggest that the distance to default signals bank fragility earlier than the subordinated debt spread. Also, the spread is affected by the implicit safety net of the bank. Finally, the results suggest that the indicators may add marginal value to accounting information through a reduction in Type II (“false positive”) errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline," Finance 0411015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0411015
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0411/0411015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. "General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
    4. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October.
    5. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    6. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
    7. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
    9. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating Agency Actions and the Pricing of Debt and Equity of European Banks: What Can we Infer About Private Sector Monitoring of Bank Soundness?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(3), pages 373-398, November.
    10. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    12. Robert R. Bliss & Mark J. Flannery, 2002. "Market Discipline in the Governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: Monitoring vs. Influencing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(3), pages 361-396.
    13. anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, "undated". "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    3. Pop, Adrian, 2006. "Market discipline in international banking regulation: Keeping the playing field level," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 286-310, October.
    4. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2004. "Can the unsophisticated market provide discipline?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3364, The World Bank.
    6. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45.
    7. Paul Kato & Jens Hagendorff, 2010. "Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(4), pages 853-870, December.
    8. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2008. "Using Securities Market Information for Bank Supervisory Monitoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 125-164, March.
    9. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    10. Heller, Yuval & Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Banks’ risk taking and creditors’ bargaining power," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    12. Nivorozhkin, Eugene, 2005. "The informational content of subordinated debt and equity prices in the presence of bankruptcy costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 94-101, May.
    13. Kathleen McDill & Andrea M. Maechler, 2003. "Dynamic Depositor Discipline in U.S. Banks," IMF Working Papers 2003/226, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Tânia Costa & Júlio Lobão & Luís Pacheco, 2023. "Reassessing bank monitoring models: an empirical analysis of the value of market signals in the period 2008–2020," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 206-227, June.
    15. Isabelle Distinguin & Iftekhar Hasan & Amine Tarazi, 2013. "Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 471-500, August.
    16. Adrian Pop, 2009. "Beyond the Third Pillar of Basel Two: Taking Bond Market Signals Seriously," Working Papers hal-00419241, HAL.
    17. Knaup, M. & Wagner, W.B., 2009. "A Market Based Measure of Credit Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Other publications TiSEM a6e8a0c8-00de-45b7-bb02-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Rong Fan & Joseph Haubrich & Peter Ritchken & James Thomson, 2003. "Getting the Most Out of a Mandatory Subordinated Debt Requirement," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 149-179, October.
    19. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    20. Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Bank fragility; Market indicators; Market discipline; Bankruptcy predictors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0411015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.