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Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline

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  • Reint Gropp
  • Jukka Vesala
  • Giuseppe Vulpes

Abstract

We examine whether two commonly used indicators of bank fragility, the subordinated debt spread and KMV’s distance to default, yield signals in line with supervisors’ interests. We argue that supervisors would prefer indicators that are strictly increasing in earnings, and decreasing in leverage and earnings volatility. Using standard option pricing, we show that the two indicators do indeed satisfy these properties if the firm is still solvent. We also summarise the results from a test of these properties in a sample of EU banks during the 1990s. The results suggest that the distance to default signals bank fragility earlier than the subordinated debt spread. Also, the spread is affected by the implicit safety net of the bank. Finally, the results suggest that the indicators may add marginal value to accounting information through a reduction in Type II (“false positive”) errors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 53-62
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2004:i:sep:p:53-62:n:v.10no.2

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Keywords: Bank supervision ; Banks and banking - Accounting ; Bank stocks ; Bank profits;

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References

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  1. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
  2. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  3. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
  4. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October.
  5. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  6. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
  7. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  8. Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Using subordinated debt to monitor bank holding companies: is it feasible?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  10. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
  13. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 076, European Central Bank.
  14. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
  2. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Andrea M. Maechler & Martin Cihák & Klaus Schaeck & Stéphanie Marie Stolz, 2009. "Who Disciplines Bank Managers?," IMF Working Papers 09/272, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2006. "Cross-border bank contagion in Europe," Working Paper Series 662, European Central Bank.
  5. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2012. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Regional Perspective," Discussion Paper 2012-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward S. Prescott, 2006. "Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices," Working Paper 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Martin Cihák & Ryan Scuzzarella & Sònia Muñoz, 2011. "The Bright and the Dark Side of Cross-Border Banking Linkages," IMF Working Papers 11/186, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Too big to fail after all these years," Staff Reports 220, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2006. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus," CESifo Working Paper Series 1647, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Martín Saldías, 2011. "A Market-based Approach to Sector Risk Determinants and Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers w201130, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Degryse, Hans & Ather Elahi, Muhammad & Penas, María Fabiana, 2012. "Determinants of banking system fragility: A regional perspective," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/338821, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

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