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Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures

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Author Info
Douglas D. Evanoff
Larry D. Wall

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Abstract

Several recent studies have recommended greater reliance on subordinated debt as a tool to discipline bank risk taking. Some of these proposals recommend using sub-debt yield spreads as triggers for supervisory discipline under prompt corrective action (PCA). Currently such action is prompted by capital adequacy measures. This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the relative accuracy of various capital ratios and sub-debt spreads in predicting bank condition: measured as subsequent CAMEL or BOPEC ratings. The results suggest that some of the capital ratios, including the summary measure used to trigger PCA, have almost no predictive power. Sub-debt yield spreads performed slightly better than the best capital measure, the Tier-1 leverage ratio, albeit the difference is not significant. The performance of sub-debt yields satisfies an important pre-requisite for using sub-debt as a PCA trigger. However, the prediction errors are relatively high and further work to refine the measures would be desirable.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-01-03.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-01-03

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Keywords: Debt Risk

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Valeriya Dinger & Jürgen von Hagen, 2007. "Does Interbank Borrowing Reduce Bank Risk?," Discussion Papers 223, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  9. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  11. Biagio Bossone, 2002. "Should Banks Be Narrowed?," Economics Working Paper Archive 354, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  17. John R. Hall & Thomas B. King & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  18. Charles Calomiris & Thanavut Pornrojnangkool, 2006. "Relationship Banking and the Pricing of Financial Services," NBER Working Papers 12622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  20. Gregory E. Sierra & Eli Talmor & James S. Wallace, 2004. "A unified analysis of executive pay: the case of the banking industry," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2004-02, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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