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The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data

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Author Info
Robert R. Bliss
Abstract

This paper examines two qualitative rules of thumb, frequently invoked in discussions of bank regulatory policy. The first, that equity holders prefer more risk to less, derives from a result in option pricing theory, that an option's value increases monotonically with the riskiness of the underlying asset. This result is shown to depend on very restrictive assumptions regarding the underlying assets return distribution and the type of option being considered. These restrictive assumptions do not generally obtain in practice. The second rule of thumb is that bondholders' and deposit insurers' interests are aligned. The paper shows that, in fact, their interests can diverge in the sense that bondholders and deposit insurers will not necessarily agree on the relative riskiness of different banks or bank portfolios. The conclusion of this paper is that rules of thumb can be misleading. Furthermore, the concept of risk is shown to be model and agent specific.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-00-24.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-00-24

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Keywords: Bonds Options (Finance) Stocks

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Merton, Robert C, 1978. "On the Cost of Deposit Insurance When There Are Surveillance Costs," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 439-52, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert R. Bliss, 2001. "Market discipline and subordinated debt: a review of some salient issues," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 24-45. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ritchken, Peter & Thomson, James B. & DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Li, Anlong, 1993. "On flexibility, capital structure and investment decisions for the insured bank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1133-1146, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt and bank capital reform," Working Paper Series WP-00-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rong Fan & Joseph G. Haubrich & Peter Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2002. "Getting the most out of a mandatory subordinated debt requirement," Working Paper 0214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Giuseppe Vulpes & Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 150, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2001. "Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Eric Rasmusen, 2004. "When Does Extra Risk Strictly Increase the Value of Options?," Finance 0409004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
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