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How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?

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Author Info
John Krainer
Jose A. Lopez

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Abstract

Bank supervisory monitoring, both on-site and off-site, generates a wealth of information with which to judge the safety and soundness of banks and bank holding companies (BHCs). For BHCs with publicly traded securities, the monitoring efforts of investors generate additional information that may complement the supervisory information set. In this paper, we address three public policy questions related to how supervisors might use this financial market information. First, can financial markets detect changes in BHC risk characteristics? To address this question, we summarize the academic literature on the topic and present our own empirical results using BHC stock returns and bond spreads. We find that securities prices signal changes in supervisory ratings of BHC condition up to a year prior to their assignment. Second, do securities prices provide information that complements supervisory information? Using forecasts generated by an off-site monitoring model developed by Krainer and Lopez (2001), we find that securities prices do improve forecasts of supervisory ratings changes, although the improvement is not statistically significant. Third, what is an appropriate level of accuracy to demand of financial market signals and off-site monitoring models more generally? We examine this question by studying the model's ratio of correct forecasts to incorrect forecasts.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 29-45
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:2003:p:29-45

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Related research
Keywords: Financial markets ; Risk ; Bank supervision;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," Working Paper Series WP-01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lisa M. DeFerrari & David E. Palmer, 2001. "Supervision of large complex banking organizations," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 47-57. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sandeep Dahiya & Anthony Saunders & Anand Srinivasan, 2003. "Financial Distress and Bank Lending Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 375-399, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Linda Allen & Julapa Jagtiani & James Moser, 2001. "Further Evidence on the Information Content of Bank Examination Ratings: A Study of BHC-to-FHC Conversion Applications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 213-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
  9. Bong-Chan Kho & Dong Lee & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  11. Donald Morgan & Kevin Stiroh, 2001. "Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 195-208, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 076, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pettway, Richard H, 1976. "Market Tests of Capital Adequacy of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 865-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Beverly Hirtle, 1997. "Derivatives, Portfolio Composition, and Bank Holding Company Interest Rate Risk Exposure," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 243-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Forecasting supervisory ratings using securities market information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 278-289.
  19. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2001. "Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
  23. Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Using subordinated debt to monitor bank holding companies: is it feasible?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  24. Avery, Robert B & Belton, Terrence M & Goldberg, Michael A, 1988. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 597-610, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Jeffery W. Gunther & Robert R. Moore, 2000. "Early warning models in real time," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 00-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  26. Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 1999. "Do markets discipline banks and bank holding companies? evidence from debt pricing," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  27. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
  28. Beverly J. Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin ČIHÁK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March. [Downloadable!]
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