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Implementing option pricing models when asset returns are predictable

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Author Info
Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan)
Wang, Jiang, 1959-

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 3593-93..

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Date of creation: 1993
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Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:2483

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Keywords: HD28 .M414 no.3593-; 93;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices," NBER Working Papers 0489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. " Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Harrison, J Michael & Pitbladdo, Richard & Schaefer, Stephen M, 1984. "Continuous Price Processes in Frictionless Markets Have Infinite Variation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 353-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bruce D. Grundy, . "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution (Reprint 012)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barry, Christopher B & French, Dan W & Rao, Ramesh K S, 1991. "Estimation Risk and Adaptive Behavior in the Pricing of Options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 15-30, February.
  9. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1992. "The effects of incomplete insurance markets and trading costs in a consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 601-620. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Grundy, Bruce D, 1991. " Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1045-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1992. "Time-varying risk premia and forecastable returns in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 169-193, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Andrew B. Abel, . "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  25. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Ferson, Wayne E, 1990. " Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 397-429, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Leland, Hayne E, 1985. " Option Pricing and Replication with Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1283-1301, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 1993. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Lehmann, Bruce N, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Grundy, R.D., 1991. "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Weiss Center Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  36. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Modeling Expected Stock Returns for Long and Short Horizons," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 42-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  41. Dybvig, Philip H & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr, 1982. "Mean-Variance Theory in Complete Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 233-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Statistical tests of contingent-claims asset-pricing models : A new methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 143-173, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Jagannathan, Ravi, 1984. "Call options and the risk of underlying securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 425-434, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laarni Bulan & Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Real Options, and Competition: Evidence from Real Estate Development," NBER Working Papers 12486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dirk Broeders, 2006. "Valuation of Conditional Pension Liabilities and Guarantees under Sponsor Vulnerabilities," DNB Working Papers 082, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. C. Hafner & H. Herwartz, . "Option Pricing under Linear Autoregressive Dynamics, Heteroskedasticity, and Conditional Leptokurtosis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-58, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
  6. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Bakstein, 2001. "The Pricing of Derivatives in Illiquid Markets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. David Bakstein & Sam Howison, 2002. "A Risk-Neutral Parametric Liquidity Model for Derivatives," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Hatgioannides & Spiros Mesomeris, 2005. "Mean Reversion in Equity Prices: the G-7 Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 64, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. John S. Ying & Joel S. Sternberg, 2005. "The Impact of Serial Correlation on Option Prices in a Non- Frictionless Environment: An Alternative Explanation for Volatility Skew," Working Papers 05-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. P. Bossaerts & C. Hafner & W. H"Ardle, . "Foreign Exchange Rates Have Surprising Volatility," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-68, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  12. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Nonparametric estimation of diffusion process: a closer look," Finance 0504016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay & June Zhang, 1997. "Econometric Models of Limit-Order Executions," NBER Working Papers 6257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Han, Bin, 2004. "Limits of Arbitrage, Sentiment and Pricing Kernal: Evidences from Index Options," Working Paper Series 2004-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "The long-run evolution of energy prices," Working papers WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 1999. "A New Class of Stochastic Volatility Models with Jumps: Theory and Estimation," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-48, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  17. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Rodriguez, J.C., 2007. "Option Pricing and Momentum," Discussion Paper 2007-93, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  19. Julio Lucia & Eduardo Schwartz, 2000. "Electricity prices and power derivatives: Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1061, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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