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Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility

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Author Info
Gropp, Reint
Vesala, Jukka
Vulpes, Giuseppe

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Abstract

We analyse the ability of the distance to default and subordinated bond spreads to signal bank fragility in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance to default exhibits lead times of 6-18 months. Spreads have signal value close to problems only. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other information and find that their additional information content may be small but not insignificant. The results suggest that market indicators reduce type II errors relative to predictions based on accounting information only.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0032
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 399-428
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:399-428

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala, 2001. "Deposit insurance and moral hazard: does the counterfactual matter?," Working Paper Series 47, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," Working Paper Series WP-01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ritchken, Peter & Thomson, James B. & DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Li, Anlong, 1993. "On flexibility, capital structure and investment decisions for the insured bank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1133-1146, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Edward Altman & Anthony Saunders, 2000. "An Analysis and Critique of the BIS Proposal on Capital Adequacy and Ratings," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-084, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 1999. "Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?," Staff Reports 95, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 076, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 1999. "Do markets discipline banks and bank holding companies? evidence from debt pricing," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  25. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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