IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v126y2017i3p635-651.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Hett, Florian
  • Schmidt, Alexander

Abstract

We design a novel test for changes in market discipline based on the relation between firm-specific risk, credit spreads, and equity returns. We use our method to analyze the evolution of bailout expectations during the recent financial crisis. We find that bailout expectations peaked in reaction to government interventions following the failure of Lehman Brothers, and returned to pre-crisis levels following the initiation of the Dodd-Frank Act. We do not find such changes in market discipline for nonfinancial firms. Finally, market discipline is weaker for government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and systemically important banks (SIBs) than for investment banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:635-651
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X17302532
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. "Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
    2. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Safer ratios, riskier portfolios: Banks׳ response to government aid," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala, 2004. "Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Market Monitoring," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 571-602.
    4. Donald Morgan & Kevin Stiroh, 2001. "Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 195-208, October.
    5. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-128, February.
    6. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    7. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October.
    8. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    9. Fabio Panetta & Thomas Faeh & Giuseppe Grande & Corrinne Ho & Michael R King & Aviram Levy & Federico M Signoretti & Marco Taboga & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 48.
    10. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    12. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    13. Veronesi, Pietro & Zingales, Luigi, 2010. "Paulson's gift," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 339-368, September.
    14. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    15. Calomiris, Charles W., 1999. "Building an incentive-compatible safety net," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1499-1519, October.
    16. Murillo Campello & Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1297-1338, May.
    17. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    18. Martin Hellwig, 2005. "Market Discipline, Information Processing, and Corporate Governance," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2005_19, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    19. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    20. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    21. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2016. "Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1278-1319, June.
    22. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    23. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    24. C. N. V. Krishnan & P. H. Ritchken & J. B. Thomson, 2005. "Monitoring and Controlling Bank Risk: Does Risky Debt Help?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 343-378, February.
    25. Robert R. Bliss & Mark J. Flannery, 2001. "Market Discipline in the Governance of US Bank Holding Companies: Monitoring versus Influencing," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 107-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    27. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    28. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2011. "Market discipline of banks: Why are yield spreads on bank-issued subordinated notes and debentures not sensitive to bank risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 21-35, January.
    29. Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988. "Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-211, May.
    30. Lammertjan Dam & Michael Koetter, 2012. "Bank Bailouts and Moral Hazard: Evidence from Germany," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(8), pages 2343-2380.
    31. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    32. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2009. "Crisis and Responses: The Federal Reserve in the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 51-75, Winter.
    33. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    34. Reint Gropp & Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2011. "Competition, Risk-shifting, and Public Bail-out Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2084-2120.
    35. Schaefer, Stephen M. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2008. "Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-19, October.
    36. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    37. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
    38. Avery, Robert B & Belton, Terrence M & Goldberg, Michael A, 1988. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 597-610, November.
    39. Marcin Kacperczyk & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "When Safe Proved Risky: Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
    40. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006. "How Do Official Bailouts Affect the Risk of Investing in Emerging Markets?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1689-1714, October.
    41. Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 2002. "The Effect of Credit Risk on Bank and Bank Holding Company Bond Yields: Evidence from the Post‐FDICIA Period," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 559-575, December.
    42. Alexander Schäfer & Isabel Schnabel & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2016. "Financial Sector Reform after the Subprime Crisis: Has Anything Happened?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 77-125.
    43. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    2. Randall Kroszner, 2016. "A Review of Bank Funding Cost Differentials," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 151-174, June.
    3. Heller, Yuval & Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Banks’ risk taking and creditors’ bargaining power," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Allen N. Berger & Martien Lamers & Raluca A. Roman & Koen Schoors, 2020. "Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts:Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/1005, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Market discipline and too-big-to-fail in the CDS market: Does banks' size reduce market discipline?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-210, March.
    6. Adrian Pop, 2009. "Beyond the Third Pillar of Basel Two: Taking Bond Market Signals Seriously," Working Papers hal-00419241, HAL.
    7. Menz, Klaus-Michael, 2010. "Market discipline and the evaluation of Euro financial bonds--An empirical analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-328, September.
    8. Pop, Adrian, 2006. "Market discipline in international banking regulation: Keeping the playing field level," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 286-310, October.
    9. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2009. "Does banks size distort market prices? Evidence for too-big-to-fail in the CDS market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Francis, Bill & Hasan, Iftekhar & Liu, LiuLing & Wang, Haizhi, 2019. "Senior debt and market discipline: Evidence from bank-to-bank loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 170-182.
    12. Cummings, James R. & Guo, Yilian, 2020. "Do the Basel III capital reforms reduce the implicit subsidy of systemically important banks? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Allen N. Berger & Martien Lamers & Raluca A. Roman & Koen Schoors, 2023. "Supply and Demand Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1397-1442, September.
    14. Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
    15. Daniel M. Covitz & Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2004. "A reconsideration of the risk sensitivity of U.S. banking organization subordinated debt spreads: a sample selection approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 73-92.
    16. Imai, Masami, 2007. "The emergence of market monitoring in Japanese banks: Evidence from the subordinated debt market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1441-1460, May.
    17. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2014. "Has market discipline on banks improved after the Dodd–Frank Act?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 155-166.
    18. Paul Kato & Jens Hagendorff, 2010. "Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(4), pages 853-870, December.
    19. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Yehning Chen & Iftekhar Hasan, 2011. "Subordinated Debt, Market Discipline, and Bank Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1043-1072, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bailout; Implicit guarantees; Too-big-to-fail; Market discipline; Hedge ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:3:p:635-651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.